Peter Schiff is the CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, an SEC-Registered Investment Adviser and a full service broker/dealer. He had a debate with another well-known pundit, Nouriel Roubini at the SALT Conference today. See VERY informal notes from that fight below.
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Peter Schiff vs Nouriel Roubini Through the Looking Glass
A global macro forecast
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Harold Ford Jr
Prime Minister George Papandreou (Greece)
HFJ – we need politicians to take risk right now
Peter Schiff — the US economy has NOT recovered from anything…we are getting sicker. This is not a recovery. Fed is just reflating assets, but the wealth effect is benefitting a small part of the population and hurting everyone else. The asset market would implode if fed took QE to zero, and it will be worse than 2008. They have just excaberated the problems from 2008. He discounts how much the weather has impacted the economy, and thinks the underlying issues are not good and the overall market is not healthy. More QE’s than rocky movies, bc it DOESN’T work.
The Fed can NOT raise interest rates to fight inflation bc the economy is so broke it would implode. So the fed will not be able to fight inflation because the economy is
Roubini — next to peter I may be Dr Boom instead of Gloom. HAHA
risk of chaos in china is rising
if fed exits too soon, it could cause a major drawdown more issues coming from Putin, he wants more than just Ukraine –it will escalate in coming years
In typical fashion, Roubini was pretty bearish on the entire world.
Peter Schiff- deflation helps consumers bc prices fall a high stock prices tells you absolutely nothing about the economy or stock itself inflated asset prices is not the correct way
We need interest rates to rise, and the Fed is preventing this
The Fed will need to raise interest rates quickly when CPI starts to rise, and we could see 10% interest rates, but then the govt won’t be able to afford their debts and even pay the interest on it.
NR- i totally disagree with PS. He is completely wrong on deflation. The US depression and Japanese depression was not good and growth was very stagnant. It is complete nonsense he says. PS trying to interrupt and laughing.
We have a slack in the goods market and labor market. Wages are not rising, and no wage inflation, so we can’t get overall inflation. Slack in commodities and real estate market. The central banks have been aggressive bc they had to be.
Will the Fed make a policy mistake on the Exit? This is the biggest risk. We will not go above 4% interest rates until 2018/2019. Not in a bubble today. We could see a bubble in credit markets and real estate market, and then equities.
Peter Schiff–falling prices do not cause the depression.
Couldn’t even understand the last few minutes as PS and NR were trying to talk louder than each other and going back and forth.
The overall view of the crowd is bearish