Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) is expected to report strong first quarter results on Tuesday, according to a report from Cantor Fitzgerald on April 28, 2014 by analysts Youssef Squali, Naved Khan and Kip Paulson. Analysts expect revenues to grow by 115% year over year, and ad revenue to witness a rise of 128% helped by better monetization. Analysts consider Twitter as a “key play on growth in Social Internet,” but cite valuation and May lock-up expiration as factors that might keep them “on the sidelines.”
Twitter MAUs growth a must-watch item
For Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), growth of MAUs and engagement will be a must-watch item as the MAU growth “decelerated” 900 bps in the fourth quarter of 2013. Total timeline views also declined 7% sequentially despite a “seasonally strong” fourth quarter, according to the Cantor Fitzgerald analysts.
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For the quarter, Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) MAUs are expected to improve by 24.8% year over year to 255 million, which is an increase of 30.3% over 4Q 2013. Timeline views per MAU to is also expected to rise by 8.8% year over year to 727, while ad revenue per 1,000 timeline views is expected to gain by 67.8% year over year to $1.24, compared to 75.3% in the fourth quarter.
Ad revenue growth in triple digits
For the first quarter, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts expect revenue of $246.4 million, which is an increase of 115.5% year over year, and is ahead of the consensus estimate of $241.4 million. For the quarter, EPS is expected to come in at ($0.01), which is in-line with the consensus estimate of ($0.02). The analysts expect EBITDA of $34.1 million or a margin of 13.8%, which is above the consensus estimate of $18.9 million.
For Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), ad revenue is expected to witness a triple-digits percent growth. the CF analysts expect ad revenue to grow by 127.8% year over year to $228.8 million, which is an increase from the growth rate of 120.9% year over year, in the fourth quarter of 2013.
According to analysts, Twitter’s ad revenue growth will be in line with that of Facebook’s, which posted a growth of 82% year over year for the first quarter compared to the 76% in the fourth quarter of 2013. Analysts believe Twitter’s strong growth to continue in 2014 and beyond provided “social media spend continues to take share of integrated ad budgets and as more marketers gain comfort with new platforms.”
Cantor Fitzgerald analysts have a Hold rating on Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), with a price target of $45.