Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) To Have Favorable Q1 But A Cautious Q2

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) To Have Favorable Q1 But A Cautious Q2
NFLX Photo by Matt Perreault

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is expected to expand its customer base to add 2.3 million domestic and 1.7 million international subscribers in the first quarter, which is slightly in line with the guidance of Goldman Sachs analysts Heath P. Terry, Perry Gold and Tina Sun in a report dated April 17, 2014. The increase can be attributed to the new House of Cards season, growth in the distribution ecosystem and geographical penetration, the analysts believe.

House of Cards boosting subscriber growth for Netflix

For Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), analysts at Goldman Sachs are expecting revenue of $1.265 billion and GAAP net income of $51.9 million, compared to the consensus estimates of $1.269 billion and $49.8 million. The increased expectations are due to expected growth in the company’s operating efficiency. The report stated that the online video streaming service is well-positioned to extract maximum benefit from growing digital media consumption and economies of scale at “28X 2014E EV/EBITDA significant degree of success remains priced in versus the sector at 15x,” say the analysts.

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In the second quarter, revenue may not come easy for Netflix, as the video streaming service provider will annualize the launch of Arrested Development season 4 and Hemlock Grove, along with season 2 of Orange is the New Black, the analysts believe.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is expected to add around 4 million subscribers, which would be an increase of 31% year over year and 6% over the last quarter. Factors contributing to growth in subscribers are the popular series House of Cards, “combined with lower churn due to weather issues in much of the country, along with continued growth in the distribution ecosystem and geographical footprint likely benefited net additions in the quarter.”

Strong international expansion

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) plans to invest more in its original content as it is encouraged by the success of popular series such as Arrested development, House of Cards and Orange is the new Black. Data from Procera revealed that House of Cards has been a major growth driver for the current quarter of Netflix. Procera noted that 16% of all Netflix subscribers of one of the U.S. cable providers were ready to watch the premiere of House of Cards in the first 24 hours, compared to 2% last year with season 1.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) has introduced its services in Canada, Latin America, the U.K., Ireland and the Netherlands. According to analysts, the service is gaining popularity is these markets. In 2013, international subscribers increased by 80%, and for 2014, analysts expect subscribers to grow by 60%.

Goldman Sachs analysts have a Neutral rating on Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) with a 12-month price target of $370.

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