Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) continues to be a battleground stock for investors and analysts, as some see continued growth in the company’s future and others see nothing but a pyramid scheme. The company announced its share buyback plan and priced its convertible notes, and Canaccord Genuity analysts have maintained their Buy rating and $87 per share price target on the stock.
How Herbalife’s plan will affect growth
Scott Van Winkle and Mark Sigal think Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF)’s “efficient business model” and the continual global distribution of its products will keep pushing double-digit growth in both earnings and revenue. They note that Herbalife has priced its convertible notes and capped the call transaction, essentially “buying up the conversion price to $120.” They believe that the 2% coupon on Herbalife’s convertible notes is the driver of that financing option since straight interest isn’t deductible for the company because it is incorporated in the Cayman Islands.
The company also said it was buying 9.9 million shares back, which immediately removes them from its diluted share count. The Canaccord Genuity team sees this share buyback as being 7% accretive to their fiscal 2014 earnings per share estimate. However, they haven’t changed their estimates just yet and believe Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) will continue its share buyback activity.
Herbalife remains discounted to peers
Currently Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) is trading at about 12 times Canaccord Genuity’s 2014 earnings per share estimate and 7.6 ties EBITDA. That puts the company’s shares at a discount to its peer group and also its historical average forward PE.
Their price target of $87 per share implies 14 times their 2015 earnings per share estimate, which is in the $6.20 range. Their 2015 estimate assumes 10% growth in earnings per share, which they belive is actually modest, compared to the trailing three-year compound annual growth rate of more than 25%. It also assumes that there’s no more “meaningful incremental buyback activity.”
