Groupon Inc (GRPN) 4Q Earnings Preview: Poised To Grow In 2014

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Groupon Inc (GRPN) 4Q Earnings Preview: Poised To Grow In 2014

Barrington Research analyst Jeff Houston rate Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) as an Outperform as the company will announce its fourth quarter earnings results on Thursday, February 21 after the market closes.

Groupon earnings preview

Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) will report Q4/13 results on Thursday, February 20, after the market close. A conference call will be held at 4:00 pm CT. We expect in-line results driven by strong domestic results, holiday-related Goods sales, momentum with mobile usage and deal bank as well as continued improvement in international operations. The company is successfully transitioning from flash-sale emailer to a mobile commerce platform, while executing on its four strategic pillars: mobile, local, pull, and one playbook. We expect management to provide more details on the recent acquisitions of its Korean? peer Tmon ($260 million) and apparel-flash-site Ideeli ($42 million) acquisitions.

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Following is a summary of Q4/14 guidance and our estimates.

Active Customers. We forecast 44.4 million, up 8% YOY.

Active Deals. We forecast 75,000, up from 65,000 last quarter and Deal Margin of 44.3%, flat with Q3/13.

Customer Spend (trailing-12-months). We show $137, flat sequentially.

Gross Billings and Deal Margin. We expect billings to be $1.63 billion with a deal margin of 43.1%, in line with last quarter’s margin.

Revenue is guided to be $690?740 million, reflecting 8-16% year-over-year growth. We project $721.3 million. The Street mean was $719.5 million.

Non-GAAP EBIT (CSOI) guidance is $40?60 million, up from Q4/12’s $13.7 million. We forecast $50.0 million (6.9% margin).

Adjusted EPS is guided to be $0.00-$0.02. We forecast $0.01, a penny below the Street.

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