Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) has just missed expectations for net ad revenues in seven of the last eight quarters, but which part of the company’s advertising business is responsible for those misses? Raymond James analysts broke down the business according to four major areas: desktop search, mobile search, YouTube and Google Display Network. They also increased their price target for the company’s stock, although they remain Neutral on it.
Breaking down Google’s ad revenue
Analyst Heather Bellini and her team examined each of the main ad revenue segments at Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG). They estimate that the company’s gross desktop search revenue will be flat this year and next year at around $33.2 billion. In mobile search, they expect 100% growth on a gross basis. They see it rising to about $9.5 billion this year and estimate that it will grow 70% to $16.1 billion next year. They included search revenues from tablets in their estimates for mobile.
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This year they’re looking for YouTube revenues to increase 36% to $6.6 billion, while next year, they expect it to grow 30% to about $8.6 billion. The analysts are estimating revenues from the Google Display Network and other display ads to increase 50% this year to about $1.3 billion and almost 40% next year to almost $1.7 billion.
Charting the shift in Google’s ad revenue
The Raymond James team notes that Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) doesn’t break down its ad revenue according to these segments and reports that they used a combination of comments made by Google management over the years and third party data to make their estimations.
When looking at all of the data on one of their charts, there’s an interesting shift going on in Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)’s ad revenue. As expected, desktop search declines in terms of percentage of the company’s search revenue, while mobile increases. YouTube and display ads also increase slightly, although mobile ad revenue makes up the lion’s share of what’s needed to offset declines in desktop revenue, according to their model.
Raymond James remains Neutral on Google
The analysts kept their Neutral rating but increased their price target from $1,060 to $1,125 per share.