The U.S. federal government was able to end its shutdown this week, and narrowly avoid hitting the debt ceiling once again. The major economic reporting agencies were furloughed during the shutdown, so this has been yet another light week of economic data.
Recap of this week’s U.S. economic events:
- The Beige Book was released and once again suggested “modest to moderate growth.”
- The Empire State manufacturing survey decreased but remained in expansion at +1.52.
- The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey also declined but is still at a very strong expansionary reading of +19.8.
- Financials conditions loosened slightly at the NFCI decreased to -0.83.
- Initial jobless claims for the week were 358k, down from the week prior. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.2%.
- Store sales were sent plummeting during the government shutdown.
- M2 increased 0.24% over the week.
Further U.S. economy reading this week:
Baupost’s Seth Klarman: the Fed has broken the stock market [Q4 Letter]
Baupost founder Seth Klarman told investors that the large amounts of stimulus that have been poured into the world's economies are masking the severity of the problems caused by COVID-19. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more In a letter seen by the
The schedule for the week ahead is still pretty grey. The government reporting agencies surely have a lot to catch up on, and as of now only the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has published a revised schedule of data releases. The backlogged releases will be published eventually, but expect other agencies to delay everything a couple of weeks in the same way that the BLS has.
The most anticipated release of the week will be Tuesday’s employment situation.
Monday, October 21, 2013
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index – Last at +0.14.
- Vehicle Miles Driven – Last down 0.4% Y/Y.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
- The Employment Situation, from September – Last U-3 at 7.3%, +169k nonfarm payrolls.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey – Last at 0.
- State Employment – Last up in 12 states Y/Y.
- Weekly Store Sales
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
- FHFA House Price Index – Last up 0.1% Y/Y.
- Weekly National Financial Conditions Index
Thursday, October 24, 2013
- New Home Sales – Last at SAAR of 421k.
- Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey – Last at +2.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- Weekly Money Supply
Friday, October 25, 2013
Via Floating Path