Hottest Links: Tilson NSFW, Europe Crushing, Moneyball Revisited, DOJ

Hottest Links: Tilson NSFW, Europe Crushing, Moneyball Revisited, DOJ

Hottest links for Wednesday (the very very late edition) August 28th, 2013 (see Tuesday‘s edition of hottest links here). Today, we mostly have behavioral finance and value investing stories although they are tied to the news. Top stories for the day include; European stocks are crushing stocks in the US, and the best performers are in Southern Europe (surprise, surprise); A look at an interesting late friday filing from the DOJ regarding a merger, the SEC filing expert has the scoop for you; Former Bruce Berkowitz analysts who formed their own fund at Goodhaven talk with Barron’s about their favorite equities; We had a related article yesterday, today a look at how you can learn to be a better investor from John Maynard Keynes; An interview with behavioral expert Michael Mauboussin, Whitney Tilson without a shirt on (warning NSFW); Tracking investment mistakes, an investor takes a look back and analyzes what he did right and wrong 15 months ago; More of our series on Joel Greenblatt’s class notes from Columbia Business School; The bullish and bearish case for gold miners. That and much more in our late edition of hottest links!

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Hottest Links: Tilson NSFW, Europe Crushing, Moneyball Revisited, DOJ

Hottest Links: Stories

If you have not done so check out our in depth series of 2005 lectures from Joel Greenblatt. Greenblatt class notes on special situations, value investing etc. taken by one Columbia business student can be found here.

How A Weakening PE Market Serves As Another Sign Of A Weakening Economy

InvestAmid the turmoil in the public markets and the staggering macroeconomic environment, it should come as no surprise that the private markets are also struggling. In fact, there are some important links between private equity and the current economic environment. A closer look at PE reveals that the industry often serves as a leading indicator Read More

A Dozen Things About Investing from John Maynard Keynes

As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. [Craig McCaw, 25IQ]


Hank Paulson: Why Fannie and Freddie remain a big threat

Fannie and Freddie are a big part of the incentive structure that vested interests want to protect, along with the mortgage interest tax deduction and state housing programs says the former Tres Sec in an interview with Fortune. Katie Benner, Fortune]

Was DOJ Request Really Standard On Belo/Gannett Deal?

Last Friday, Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) and Belo Corp (NYSE:BLC) put out this press release to announce that they had received requests for more information on the acquisition of Belo, which was announced on June 13. [Footnoted]

Revisiting “Moneyball” with Paul DePodesta

In 2002, when the Oakland A’s replaced their MVP first baseman Jason Giambi with 32-year-old Scott Hatteberg, a washed-up catcher with a bum arm, longtime baseball scouts figured the unpredictable A’s had finally gone completely around the bend. As journalist Michael Lewis recounted in his book, Moneyball, even “Hatteberg hadn’t the slightest idea why the Oakland A’s were so interested in him.” [Kevin Berger, Nautil]

361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing

If I was being forced to choose a side for year end 2013 performance, I would have to agree with Mr. Plant. While September is historically a difficult month for the markets, we also know that the Q4 tends to reward the equity markets. [Blaine Rollins, The Reformed Borker]

On Barron’s 400 Report Card, Stock Gains Not Always an ‘A’

A funny thing is happening to the Barron’s 400 (NYSEARCA:BFOR) stock portfolio. The share prices of the companies tracked by this stockpicker’s ETF are rising quickly — so quickly that the fundamentals of relatively solid companies can’t keep up. [Brendan Conway, Barron’s]

A Few More General Thoughts on the Miners

Stocks that sell for 50-70% of NAV are typically good places to look for ideas. My idea was to build a basket to diversify business specific risk (which is prevalent in this group). But it’s a small basket. I currently own a small basket of six precious metals stocks, and I cherry picked what I considered to be the best ones. The way I did this was very simple: [John Huber, Base Hit Investing]

European Stocks Began To Crush The S&P

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is up a healthy 3% in the quarter, but the SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSEARCA:FEZ) has almost quadrupled that gain, soaring by +11% and change. It’s also interesting (and perhaps telling) to see the ETFs of two of the most decimated Eurozone countries, Italy and Spain, up 15% and 15.6% respectively, as compared to the equities of a much stronger Germany rising by “just” 8.7%. [Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker]

Goodhaven on Barrick: Stock ‘Could Multiply in Value’

A few weeks back we gave you excerpts of the GoodHaven Fund (MUTF:GOODX)’s approach to battered, beaten mining stock Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) (TSE:ABX). The fund’s managers Larry Pitkowsky and Keith Trauner literally described it as akin to running toward a fire — a metaphor that certainly suggests a risk of getting burned. [Brendan Conway, Barron’s]

Howard Marks’ Book: Chapter 14

Continuation of portfolio management highlights from Howard Marks’ book, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, Chapter 14 “The Most Important Thing Is…Knowing What You Don’t Know” [PMJar]

Value Based Insider Purchases

Staffing and outsourcing company Hudson Global Inc (NASDAQ:HSON) continues to show insider purchases. The stock is down -44.54% over the past 52 weeks trading near their 52 week low. ImmuCell Corporation (NASDAQ:ICCC) develops animal health products to create measurable economic impact in the dairy and beef industries. ICCC is in the process of getting FDA approval for one of their products. The company is profitable. [Shadow Stocks]

Portfolio Manager Patterns

Morningstar published an article on rolling returns. It shows the percentage of time the three-year trailing returns for six funds spent in each quartile of their respective categories.  (This is monthly for ten years, so 120 observations.) [Research Puzzle Pieces, Tom Brakke]

Tesla Motors Shareholders Watch Syria And QE3

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors should be watching the market’s response to Syria and Fed policy if they want to get out ahead of the crowd.   [ValueWalk]

Sold, Rejected But Not Forgotten: Tracking Investing Mistakes

Some 15 months ago, I had a post about stocks I had either sold or not bought after analyzing them. This time I want to update that list plus provide some “theoretical” background why I think this is an important part of any investment process.Some stocks sold are Koninklijke KPN N.V. (AMS:KPN) (OTCMKTS:KKPNY), Total SA (ADR) (NYSE:TOT), Bouygues SA (EPA:EN) (OTCMKTS:BOUYY), Dart Group PLC (LON:DTG) (OTCMKTS:DRTGF), OMV AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:OMVKY) (ETR:OMV) (FRA:OMV), EVN AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:EVNVY) (ETR:EVN) (FRA:EVN), Mapfre SA (MCE:MAP) (OTCMKTS:MPFRF) and WMF AG (ETR:WMF) (FRA:WMF) [Value And Opportunity]

Michael Mauboussin, Interview No. 4

Michael Mauboussin is the author of numerous books, including More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, and most recently The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (a book that found its way to Warren Buffett’s desk.) While Michael is well known in investment circles for his knowledge of biases and clarity of thinking, a lot of others are missing out on his insight. [Shane Parrish, Farnam Street]

Not the Onion

If This Hedge Fund Thing Doesn’t Work Out Whitney Tilson Has Realtor Gig To Fall Back On, With A Focus On High-End Rental Properties [DealBreaker]

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