Channel Advisor’s estimate for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)’s same store sales for the month of June came in at 30.6% y/y growth, representing 4.8% acceleration from May’s reported 25.8% y/y growth.
Implications for covered stocks
Michael Graham, CFA of Canaccord Genuity views the June Channel Advisor SSS release as positive for both Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) in light of sequential growth acceleration. He notes that the monthly Channel Advisor data represents an estimate based on a limited sample size, but are typically a good proxy for revenue/GMV growth for both stocks.
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When considering the entire quarter, Channel Advisor Q2/13 SSS data suggests 30.6% y/y growth compared to 32.2% y/y average growth in Q1/13. This represents deceleration of about 1.6 percentage points while the firm is currently modeling a 3.0 percentage point acceleration in Amazon Marketplace (Media plus EGM) revenue growth in Q2/13. When considering just the past month, Michael believes that the Channel Advisor June data suggests growth acceleration compared with May, which should be good for stock sentiment in the short term.
Amazon Unable To Stop Bulls With The Rise
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) just hit $300 a share today but that has not stopped the bulls. Michael believes the shares of the tech giant are justified at $300 and recommends holding the stock.
Aaron Kessler, CFA, Raymond James notes in a new report that according to CA, Amazon same-store sales for June increased 30.6% y/y, an acceleration from 25.8% y/y in May. For 2Q overall, Amazon same-store sales increased 29.0% y/y, a slight deceleration from 32.2% y/y in 1Q. For 2Q, he estimates that Amazon revenue growth for U.S. Electronics & Other General Merchandise (most comparable to CA data) of 28.0% y/y vs. 28.0% y/y in 1Q. However, the firm has no rating for Amazon.com.
However, others are more bullish and think Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) at $300 is just the ‘start’ of good things to come.
Victor Anthony Of Topeka notes:
SSS for June was 30.6% YoY, a 480bps rebound from the 25.8% YoY reported in May, and equal to the 30.6% YoY reported for April. June was up against a 2pt tougher YoY comp, so this is a positive trend. SSS for the quarter averaged 29% YoY, a deceleration from the 33.6% YoY in 1Q13. A regression analysis of the CA data (a low 50% R Squared likely due to limited digital media sales in the CA data) implies North American growth would be 26%, ahead of our 23% published estimate, and in-line with the reported growth rate in 1Q13. Recall our regression analysis for 1Q13 predicted growth of 27% and Amazon reported 26.4%.
He has a buy on the stock and thinks the online retailer can hit $350 a share.