S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update

one month PCE inflation annual rate

The Dallas Fed released its 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE core inflation measure at 1.3% for April 2013-see the tables below. By combining this inflation measure with the long term US  Real GDP growth rate one gets the “Prevailing Rate” which is ~4.32%. Using the Prevailing Rate to capitalize the long term earnings mean earnings for the S&P 500 ($79.64)  (SPY) one can calculate the S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index at $1,848. This is a dynamic calculation in that mean earnings for the S&P 500, core inflation and Real GDP change over time. History of the S&P500 Intrinsic Value Index from 1978 reveals that the major market lows during recessions correlate well this index. The S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index is also the market level at which the very good value investors, i.e. Warren Buffett, Wilbur Ross and etc,  have found the equity markets attractive.

one month PCE inflation annual rate S&P 500

TheS&P500 remains slightly more than 10% undervalued vs. the SP500 Intrinsic Value Index.

Capture1238 624x376 S&P Fair Value Update

Lower inflation results in higher market valuations over time all other things remaining equal. The history of inflation and SP500 P/E reveals that lower inflation results in higher P/E levels while higher inflation produces lower P/E levels with a lagging investor response of ~3yrs called “The Recency Effect”

If one reviews the trends in the PCE data, one can anticipate that for the next few readings that inflation is likely to head somewhat lower which in turn results in higher levels in the SP500 Intrinsic Value Index. For equity investors, falling inflation has always provided higher equity prices historically and we can expect a similar impact this time in my opinion.

The history of the SP500 Intrinsic Value Index indicates that since Hedge Funds emerged as a significant market influence in 1995 more recent major market tops have been at 55%-100% in excess of the index. These major market tops have coincided with peaks in economic activity, i.e. peaking light vehicle sales and employment levels. The economic data continue to reflect economic expansion which is likely to last, again based on historical records, 5yrs-6yrs into the future.

It is my opinion that we are likely to experience a market overvaluation as we have in the past 2 market tops. The timing and the pricing of the next major top are unpredictable, but we can monitor economic activity and tell when economic activity is slowing significantly. Till that time arrives, investors should maintain a strong commitment to equity in my opinion.

By: valueplays

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About the Author

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.

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