This article is going to show that Polaris Industries Inc (PII) is a company who is currently experiencing an acceleration in its earnings growth. Therefore, when you review its long-term operating history, it would appear that Polaris Industries Inc’s stock price may be ahead of its earnings justified valuation. However, when you review more recent history, there is evidence that justifies Polaris Industries Inc’s current PE ratio. Since calendar year 2009, as you will soon see, the company has experienced a strong acceleration in its earnings growth rate.
About Polaris Industries Inc: Directly from their website
“Polaris Industries Inc. designs, manufactures and markets innovative, high-quality, off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and the Polaris RANGER® side-by-side vehicles, snowmobiles, motorcycles and on-road electric/hybrid powered vehicles.
Polaris Industries Inc. trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “PII,” and the company is included in the S&P Mid-Cap 600 stock price index.”
Earnings Determine Market Price: The following earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings. The Earnings Growth Rate Line or True Worth™ Line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.
Earnings & Price Correlated Fundamentals-at-a-Glance
A quick glance at the 15-year historical earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ on Polaris Industries Inc shows a picture of overvaluation based upon the historical earnings growth rate of 13.7% and a current PE of 20. Analysts are forecasting the earnings growth to continue at about 19.5%, and when you look at the forecasting graph below, the stock appears in-value, (it’s inside of the value corridor of the five orange lines – based on future growth).
Polaris Industries Inc: Historical Earnings, Price, Dividends and Normal PE Since 1998
Recent Earnings Acceleration
The reason this company looks overvalued on the long-term historical perspective (15 years) is because earnings growth has accelerated since 2009. The following 6-year historical graph shows the accelerated growth. This may explain why the consensus of 13 analysts reporting to Capital IQ expect future earnings growth that is significantly higher than the long-term historical of 13.7%. If this estimate is correct then Polaris is attractively valued based on the above-average expected earnings growth. However, it’s up to the reader to determine for themselves whether or not they are comfortable with the accelerated growth potential of this company.
Performance Table Polaris Industries Inc
The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the principles regarding the two components of total return; capital appreciation and dividend income. Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested.
When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident. In addition to the 17.2% capital appreciation (green circle), long-term shareholders of Polaris Industries Inc, assuming an initial investment of $1,000, would have received an additional $916.16 in dividends (blue highlighting) that increased their total return from 17.2% to 17.9% per annum versus 4% (red circle) in the S&P 500.
The following graph plots the historically normal PE ratio (the dark blue line) in conjunction with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as high as it has been since 1998.
A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company’s current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio. The current price to sales ratio for Polaris Industries Inc is 1.83 which is historically high.
Looking to the Future
Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns are a function of two critical determinants:
1. The rate of change (growth rate) of the company’s earnings
2. The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings
Forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.
The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.
The consensus of 13 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Polaris Industries Inc’s long-term earnings growth at 19.5% (orange circle). Polaris Industries Inc has low long-term debt at 17% of capital (red circle). Polaris Industries Inc is currently trading at a P/E of 20, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 23.4 (orange circle with arrow). If the earnings materialize as forecast, Polaris Industries Inc’s True Worth™ valuation would be $196.04 at the end of 2017 (brown circle on EYE Chart), which would be a 20.4% annual rate of return from the current price (yellow highlighting).
Earnings Yield Estimates
Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.
Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Polaris Industries Inc to an equal investment in 10 year Treasury bonds, illustrates that Polaris Industries Inc’s expected earnings would be 7.8 (purple circle) times that of the 10 Year T-Bond Interest. (See EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.
Summary & Conclusions
This report presented essential “fundamentals at a glance” illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although, with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it’s imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.
Disclosure: No position at the time of writing.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.