Temp Employment Take Holiday Dip…..Sort Of…

The Temp Staffing index finally fell last week, 4 weeks after it historically has. The index, however only fell to 86 from the pre Thanksgiving 92. This 6% fall is half the 12% average fall of the previous two years (I omitted the collapse on ’08 as it would skew the average). When we see this and see ADP numbers like we saw today of +325K (I think that is a bit to the high side given ADP admits error of +/- 100k) is should not come as a surprise.

Temp employment is telling us that employment will continue to improve as we go into 2012.

Here is the ADP/NFP relationship for those interested:
Capture426 Temp Employment Take Holiday Dip.....Sort Of...

Here is the temp staffing chart:
Capture425 624x252 Temp Employment Take Holiday Dip.....Sort Of...

About the Author

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.