called not just for adequate spending but also for a return to sustainable production – production purged of boom-era distortions caused by easy money.
I think it is appropriate, since we began this letter with a quote from Friedrich Hayek’s acceptance speech for the 1974 Nobel Prize in economics, to end with an excerpt from his closing thoughts in that speech (which you can read in its entirety, and I would suggest you do so, here):
If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will therefore have to use what knowledge he can achieve, not to shape the results as the craftsman shapes his handiwork, but rather to cultivate a growth by providing the appropriate environment, in the manner in which the gardener does this for his plants.
There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, “dizzy with success”, to use a characteristic phrase of early communism, to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will. The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men’s fatal striving to control society – a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.
More Videos from the Conference
As I noted at the beginning of the letter, we are making available a number of the videos from the Strategic Investment Conference last May. So let me take one more opportunity to call your attention to this great Mauldin Circle Member Exclusive. As I mentioned last week, we have made select videos of our highest-rated speakers available to Mauldin Circle members. There is just an incredible amount of valuable insight in these presentations from such giants as Newt Gingrich, Niall Ferguson, Kyle Bass, Paul McCulley, Ian Bremmer, and David Rosenberg. I encourage you to take the time to watch at least a few.
You can access the videos, absolutely free, just by becoming a Mauldin Circle member. In addition to these select videos, you’ll get access to summaries and presentations of many more speakers from the conference. In order to join, you must be an accredited investor. Register here to be qualified by my partners at Altegris and added to the subscriber roster. Once you register, an Altegris representative will call you to provide access to the videos, presentations, and summaries from selected speakers at our 2014 conference.
If you are already a Mauldin Circle member, simply log in to the “members only” area of the Altegris website at http://www.altegris.com. Click on the “SIC 2014” link in the upper left corner to view the videos and more. If you have forgotten your login information, simply click “Forgot Login?” and your information will be sent to you.
Whistler, Maine, Montana, and San Antonio
One of my kids reminded me just before I left town yet again that I had told them I was going to be home most of the summer. That was the original plan, but things just seem to come up. I am finishing this letter in Whistler, British Columbia, looking out over the mountains and getting ready to attend Louis Gave’s 40th birthday party (which he is celebrating over the next three days). Tomorrow, with any luck, I will be able to explore the area and maybe get in a little hiking. It seems appropriate that we talked today about the French economist Say, since I will be spending the evening with my current favorite French economist, Charles Gave, father of Louis. (By the way, Charles just put out a call suggesting it is time to short French bonds outright.)
We get home Monday afternoon, and Wednesday I leave for a stopover in New York on my way to Grand Lake Stream in Maine (via Bangor) with my youngest son, Trey. And I’m sure there will be plenty of fuel for the fires of debate to be found in my recent letters, as a couple noted Keynesian types will be there, along with the usual assortment of Federal Reserve economists and Austrian economic recidivists like me.
Later in the month I intend to go to Flathead Lake in Montana to spend some time with my friend Darrell Cain and other business partners, where we will think about the future. In the middle of September I will be at the Casey Research Summit. And while that is all that is on my schedule today, past performance is indicative that a few more outings will show up on the schedule.
In 1986, I was allowed to accompany Dr. Gary North and Dr. Mark Skousen to a small Austrian village up in the mountains near Innsbruck. There we sat down with 86-year-old Friedrich Hayek. We had traveled up there on the spur of the moment, hoping to meet him. His quite-protective wife agreed to let us talk with him for a few minutes, although she was worried about our tiring him too much. We sat down in a small room and turned on a tape recorder. Gary and Mark were not really interested in talking economics at this meeting; they wanted to talk about the “inner circle” that had gathered in Vienna around the economist Ludwig von Mises.
What ensued was interesting. When we walked into the room, we could tell that Hayek was a little weary from having met with yet another group of people wanting to discuss the economic ideas he had written about for decades. But as he realized that what Gary and Mark wanted to talk about was history that had not yet been written about – an invitation to walk back through his own memories – he visibly grew brighter and stronger. What was a promised 30 minutes stretched into three hours. I should have been taking notes, as I now remember so little of it. It’s one of the truly great opportunities in my life that I wasted. I had no idea then how special the moment was. However, getting to spend time with the man who some call the greatest economist of the last century, and to see him come alive for a few hours, was an experience that is indelibly imprinted in my mind. And to be fair to myself, there are very few conversations whose particulars I can recal l 30 years on. But I do remember the moment and still feel its impact on me.
I sometimes wonder whether Mark or Gary have that recording or their notes. I keep meaning to ask.
The sun has come out, and it is a marvelous summer day in the mountains of British Columbia. I think I should hit the send button and go explore little bit before the party tonight, where we may create a few more memories. You have a great week. I’ll be ready next week from Maine, when my young associate Worth Wray and I will once again be thinking about China.
Your just enjoying the journey analyst,
John Mauldin
