Payrolls

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its employment situation release this morning that +148k jobs were added in September. This is worse than what economists expected for the month, but expectations have been pretty mixed since the federal government shutdown and incoming economic data slowed.

The August job gains of +169k was revised up to +193k, and the July jobs gains of +104k was revised down to +89k.

Non-Farm Payrolls For September [GRAPHS]

The professional services sector led in new jobs added this month. Leisure and hospitality, a sector that has generally had continually high job gains for years now, was the largest decrease.

  • Mining and Logging: +4k payrolls compared to +3k last month.
  • Construction: +20k payrolls compared to +2k last month.
  • Manufacturing: +2k payrolls compared to +13k last month.
  • Wholesale Trade: +16.1k payrolls compared to +9.1k last month.
  • Retail Trade: +20.8k payrolls compared to +31.9k last month.
  • Transportation: +23.4k payrolls compared to +6.3k last month.
  • Information Services: +4k payrolls compared to -17k last month.
  • Financial Activities: -2k payrolls compared to -3k last month.
  • Professional Services: +32k payrolls compared to +30k last month.
  • Education: +14k payrolls compared to +61k last month.
  • Leisure and Hospitality: -13k payrolls compared to +21k last month.
  • Other Services: +5k payrolls compared to +4k last month.
  • Government: +22k payrolls compared to +32k last month.

Here’s the cumulative changes in payrolls by industry since July 2007. You can see leisure and hospitality has still added more jobs than any other sector except professional services during this period.

The unemployment rate (U-3) decreased in September to 7.2% from 7.3% in August while the broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 13.6% from 13.7%.

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.2%.

The employment-population ratio was also unchanged at 58.6%.

I will note again as I do every month that the current labor force participation rate is very low by historical standards. The rate is the lowest it has been since August of 1978.

The labor force participation rate among all men increased in September to 69.7% from 69.5% in August. The labor force participation rate among all women decreased to 57.1% from 57.3%.

Among production and non-supervisory employees, average weekly hours worked were unchanged from last month at 33.7. Average hourly earnings increased to $20.24 from $20.20, making average weekly earnings of $682.09 from $680.74 last month.

Non-Farm Payrolls For September [GRAPHS]

The average duration of unemployment decreased in September to 36.9 weeks compared to 37.0 weeks in August.

I always include a longer time frame on this chart to provide some context of just how bad this recession has been for the long-term unemployed. This is still the leading employment indicator that shows how “this time is different.”

Percent of unemployed by duration:

  • Less than 5 weeks: 23.1% compared to 22.7% last month.
  • 5 to 14 weeks: 24.0% compared to 24.4% last month.
  • 15 to 26 weeks: 16.0% compared to 15.0% last month.
  • 27 weeks and over: 36.9% compared to 37.9% last month.

Employment only worsened for the 55+ age bracket in September. The unemployment rate of age groups:

  • 16 to 17: 25.8% compared to 26.3% last month.
  • 18 to 19: 19.9% compared to 21.7% last month.
  • 20 to 24: 12.9% compared to 13.0% last month.
  • 25 to 34: 7.4% compared to 7.8% last month.
  • 35 to 44: 5.6% compared to 5.7% last month.
  • 45 to 54: 5.5% compared to 5.5% last month.
  • 55+: 5.3% compared to 5.1% last month.

The unemployment rate for men was unchanged in September at 7.7%. The unemployment rate for women decreased to 6.7% from 6.8%.

The unemployment rate among all veterans in September was 6.5% from August’s 6.2%.

The unemployment rate among male veterans decreased to 6.3% from 6.0% last month. The wildly volatile female veteran unemployment rate was 7.5%, down from the 7.7% it was last month.

Of the 4 racial groups tracked by the BLS, only Asians experienced a higher unemployment rate than the month prior:

  • White: 6.3% compared to 6.4% last month.
  • Black: 12.9% compared to 13.0% last month.
  • Asian: 5.3% compared to 5.1% last month.
  • Hispanic: 9.0% compared to 9.3% last month.

Unemployment rates by education level:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 10.3% compared to 11.3% last month.
  • High school graduates: 7.6% from 7.6% last month.
  • Some college or Associate degree: 6.0% from 6.1% last month.
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 3.7% from 3.5% last month.

September was an unusually positive month for those seeking full-time jobs. By counting the total number of employed persons by employment status, we find that +691k full-time jobs were added in September as compared with +118k full-time jobs in August. Part-time jobs shifted -594k in September as compared with a -234k change in August.

This is a dramatic shift, and is the highest number of full-time jobs added in a single month since September 2012.

Despite the enormous amount of full-time jobs gained this month, full-time jobs remain well below their previous high. The cumulative change in part-time and full-time jobs since July 2007:

The total number of part-time employed in September were 27.405 million from 27.999 million in August. The total number of full-time persons were 116.899 million from 116.208 million last month.

This means that the ratio of full-time workers to total workers in September was 81.01%, an increase from August’s 80.58%, but still historically very low.

Non-Farm Payrolls For September [GRAPHS]

Full table of employment changes in September:

Via: floatingpath.com