Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is headed into the release of a new iPhone in the next couple of weeks, according to rumors. Product releases are generally considered to be catalysts for a rise in the company’s stock price, but further analysis of that doesn’t hold up. Over at, David Goldman takes a look at historical trading after the release of a new iPhone. Unfortunately there’s no trend in stock after the smartphone release.

apple stock

The analysis looks at movement in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock in the month after the release of a new iPhone. In 2007, the stock fell by close to 7% after the release, while in 2008 the stock lost 1.1%, in 2009 it lost 3.9%, in 2010 it lost 0.9%, in 2011 it gained more than 8% and in 2012 it lost close to 8%.

Trends show iPhone bumps shares

The one vaguely recognizable trend in the analysis is that the value of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares tends to climb in the days after the new iPhone is released. Those gains tend to disappear or be restrained through the month after release, however.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares are just as predictable on market trends as all of the others. If there is a trend the market is likely to find it and get rid of it through their actions. With a sample size of six, however, these numbers aren’t exactly hard and fast.

Apple stock shows volatility

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has been particularly difficult to predict in the last year, as investors wonder about the ability of the company to innovate and keep its gross margin high. The fact that stock peeked briefly above the $700 level also made some investors nervous, with each milestone the company passed leaving endlessly possible increases ahead.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been more stable in recent months, though its performance hasn’t exactly been fantastic. The company has actually grown in line with Nasdaq in the last six months, adding about 15% to its value. Since the start of the year, however, the stock is still down close to 7%, while Nasdaq has added more than 20%.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a difficult bet right now. As most of the hedge fund managers involved in the company have said, the company’s fundamentals dictate a higher price. With those fundamentals strong, and the company now paying a dividend, it seems logical that stock should have risen. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is difficult to invest in because it has defied those predictions for so long.