Stock in Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) has gained more than 30 percent since the start of 2013, signalling a turnaround for the company, but analysts at Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) (ETR:DBK) think that the firm’s massive gains have been based on little, and growth over the next year doesn’t support the current valuation.

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Analysts think that although Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) has made progress, the company’s shares aren’t worth more than $6 right now, and that’s what the firm put on the shares as a twelve month price target. Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) is likely to incrementally improve its business in the next twelve months, but it’s unlikely to be enough to make the firm really valuable, and the risks of failure are very high.

The biggest risk facing the company is macroeconomic conditions in Europe. Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) faces much of the same risks as retailers on a macroeconomic scale, and if conditions in the continent turn sour, that could hit the company’s bottom line hard and reduce the outlook for shares.

One positive factor working for Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) is a homegrown one. It looks like the company finally has its business in order, and it might be able to keep business stable going forward. If the company can manage that, while improving its business incrementally, it should be worth $6 per share next year. If it can’t, it may be worth substantially less.

Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) has seen its value increase substantially in a short period of time. That always makes a stock worth a second look, yet Groupon doesn’t stand up to the scrutiny. The firm would need serious changes if it is to be actually worth more than $6.

Stock in the group discounter has fallen by more than 40 percent in the last year after an IPO that was disrupted by claims that the company’s accounting practices, and by association its management, had real problems, plus a fall in social networking stocks after the disastrous Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) IPO.

The company has increased its credibility in recent months, but that hasn’t stopped the market reacting badly to some of the news coming out of the company. The firm’s fourth quarter earnings report, which was delivered in February, was weak and resulted in a crash in the company’s stock after hours. The days when analysts actually believed Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) would bid for the company are long behind.