Black Friday isn’t just about scooping up huge discounts anymore, as it now serves as a real‑time barometer of consumer confidence.
Highlighting the sheer scale of this holiday season buying frenzy, analysts at XTB expect roughly $12 billion in US online sales on Black Friday and an 8% year-over-year rise in global e-commerce in late November. In fact, strong holiday demand often feeds a sentiment loop that carries into December.
Historically, retail and e-commerce names tend to outperform the S&P 500 in the days leading up to Black Friday, and often for weeks after. For markets, this signals retail and tech earnings, digital adoption, and even advertising budgets.
The takeaway is simple: Black Friday investing starts with tracking demand, not just discounts. Keep reading to learn more about how savvy investors are capitalizing on the second-order effects of this year’s Black Friday.
Historic Data Shows Retail Stocks Surge Ahead of Black Friday
In XTB’s latest market analysis focused on the stock market during the broader Black Friday period, the exchange revealed data showing that retail and e‑commerce stocks have historically outperformed the S&P 500 over the 17 trading days leading up to Black Friday.
The pattern isn’t a fluke, as it has been repeated often enough to influence investor positioning each November. In the three weeks after Black Friday, relative strength usually persists, though the gap starts to narrow. This creates a tactical window from mid-November through early December where Black Friday stocks can typically enjoy a tailwind.
In other words, this can provide a timely tailwind for traders looking for smart Black Friday investments. This is why shrewd investors see this as an opportunity to position themselves for a potential upswing, a strategy that has been reinforced by nearly two decades of data.
How XTB’s Zero-Commission Model Could Give Traders an Edge This Black Friday Season
One of the most important things to consider when trading during these seasonal setups is cost. This is precisely why choosing a platform like XTB, which enables cost-effective trading, becomes critical.
For perspective, XTB offers 0% commission on real stocks and ETFs with monthly turnover up to €100,000, with a simple 0.2% fee beyond that. For most individuals, that pricing lowers friction on both entries and exits during a busy trading stretch.
Even more importantly, XTB provides a full-fledged toolset to help investors make informed decisions. For instance, it bundles credible research on seasonal retail trends with educational resources. This combination allows beginners to ground their decisions in data, not noise.
XTB’s xStation5 Platform Is Built for Smarter Trading
XTB empowers its investors and traders with its award-winning xStation5 platform that pairs an intuitive layout with features that actually make a difference.
For example, it features an automatic order calculator that estimates potential profit, loss, and required margin before you click submit. This realistically keeps position sizing rational, even when markets move fast.
Moreover, advanced charting makes trend analysis and risk mapping straightforward on the XTB trading platform. You can simply add indicators, highlight buying or selling zones, and set alerts without leaving the trading interface.
There’s also a live sentiment panel that will show how other traders are positioned, offering a quick read on crowd behavior.
Best E-commerce Stocks: Q4 Selection
A handful of global names anchor today’s Black Friday watchlists. In the US, Amazon and Shopify remain central to the e-commerce story, while Zalando and Allegro can offer upside in European markets if volumes are upbeat. Even Nike rounds out the group with a direct-to-consumer setup that usually peaks over the holidays.
According to XTB’s report, each of these companies shows distinct signals, like technical levels, guidance trends, or policy catalysts, that can help investors set trades up for Q4.
Let’s take a brief look at how each of these stocks can perform:
Amazon, Shopify, and Nike
Amazon (AMZN.US) is entering the season with impressive fundamentals, as its Q3 results show double-digit revenue growth as well as profit growth. Looking ahead, analysts expect a healthy holiday quarter across its retail and cloud businesses. From a technical perspective, the stock’s price has pulled back from its recent highs of $258 and is testing a key support band between $212 and $220.
That support band aligns with a post-earnings breakout area and January’s peak. Thus, holding above it could reinforce dip-buying and fuel a year-end push. With strong fundamentals and a history of thriving during the holiday rush, Amazon remains a top choice for promising Black Friday stocks 2025.
On the other hand, even Spotify (SHOP.US) has seen a correction, declining over 20% in November itself after breaking out of a classic ascending channel on its daily chart.
Historically, November and December are Shopify’s strongest months as merchant volumes surge. If the technical support near the $136 level holds, a rebound could align with platform-wide order growth from millions of stores.
Meanwhile, the Nike (NKE.US) stock slipped below its 200-day moving average, reflecting broader market wobbles. Even so, investors are now expecting the stock to recover from the $60 support level, as the holiday quarter is Nike’s peak season.
Another potential catalyst for Nike sits on the policy front. A US Supreme Court tariff decision expected by January 2026 could benefit import-exposed brands if duties are eased. This optimistic backdrop, along with the expected seasonal gains, can realistically help Nike recover through December and January.
Top European E-Commerce Stocks
It’s worth noting that two European e-commerce companies are emerging as top picks this season. Zalando (ZAL.DE), a leading online fashion retailer in Europe, has struggled since 2021 with a prolonged stock downturn.
Having said this, the company’s fundamentals, like millions of active customers and a robust logistics network, are still intact.
Black Friday 2025 could be the catalyst Zalando needs for a trend reversal. Any uptick in order volumes or improvement in profit margins could spark a short-term relief rally after multiple weak quarters. In past years, investors have often rediscovered Zalando during the holiday surge, and this year looks to be no exception if early sales data makes an impression.
Allegro (ALE.PL) is a Polish e-commerce giant that many investors still overlook. It currently benefits from solid economic tailwinds in its country, including rising wages and recent interest rate cuts that support consumer spending.
If the platform posts strong Black Friday sales at home, it could draw fresh attention to the company’s growth. And if the share price rises from its current support level, it would show the stock’s strength and hint that Central European retail-tech names may be ready to rally again.
Conclusion
To put everything in perspective, Black Friday 2025 could be shaping up to be more than just a retail event. It’s essentially a broad market signal and a possible trading window for savvy market players.
Seasonal trends suggest there is potential for a rally in retail and e-commerce shares, and we’ve identified key names that could ride this wave. How to act on these insights? This is where choosing the right platform becomes crucial. XTB’s commission-free real stock trading and advanced xStation5 toolkit give investors an edge in turning holiday shopping trends into market opportunities.
Whether you prefer active trading or a passive investing Black Friday strategy through ETFs, XTB provides a cost-effective platform to do so.
