Xeris Hits Fresh All Time Lows Despite Bullish Investor Update

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Jefferies Thinks The Stock Will Be Cash Flow Positive In 2024

Shares of small-cap biotech firm Xeris Biopharma Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:XERS) slipped -1% in trading on Thursday, hitting fresh new lows even with a positive outlook update from management.

Ahead of planned meetings with investors next week, management updated its guidance for the full year 2022 results.

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Xeris Biopharma's Earnings

Xeris expects to report revenue at the top end of its $105 to $110 million guidance range and have a year-end cash balance above the $110 to $120 million guidance range. The street consensus forecast for full year revenue is around $108 million.

Xeris’ Chairman and CEO Paul Edick commented in the filing stating “Our momentum continued through the fourth quarter with strong patient demand for both Recorlev and Keveyis and better than expected prescription growth for Gvoke giving us confidence that we will end 2022 at the top of our net product revenue guidance”

During the fourth quarter, management advised that the company drew down on the last $50 million tranche from the Hayfin debt facility and also received the upfront payment from the Horizon Therapeutics collaboration. Fintel journalists covered the collaboration in an article here.

Edick also importantly highlighted one point to the street saying “Building off our commercial product momentum in 2022 coupled with our very solid financial position, we do not anticipate the need to raise equity to fund our operations

Jefferies investment bank analysts Glen Santangelo and Peter Warendorf were encouraged by the sales and balance sheet update with management's commitment to avoid raising equity.

The firm discussed how they believe liquidity concerns about potential dilutive equity issuance was an overhang on the stock, given previous financing activities.

The analysts believe Xeris will be cash flow positive from FY24 and hence continue to maintain their ‘buy’ recommendation and $4 price target.

Fintel’s average consensus forecast price of $5.36 suggests the stock could trade more than 500% higher than current levels over the next year. Fintel’s revenue forecast indicates the street is forecasting growth of more than 150% over the next year.

The chart below provided from the forecast page shows future revenue estimates plotted on a chart through to 2025.

Xeris

One positive from the retreating share price has been the above average level of institutional interest in XERS. Fintel’s bullish fund sentiment score of 78.35 ranks XERS in the top 7% when compared to 36,959 other global securities.

Xeris has a total of 202 institutions on the register that collectively own 61.1 million shares. Some of the largest funds on the register include: Stonepine Capital Management LLC, NEA Management Company, Armistice Capital, Geode Capital Management and State Street Corp.

XERS has risen 11 ranks this week in popularity and is currently the 68th most held security by retail investors.

Xeris is next scheduled to update investors when presenting at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference on the 12th of January.

Fourth quarter results are expected to be released in early March.

Article by Ben Ward, Fintel