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The IPO Pipeline Still Flowing Post Facebook

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The IPO Pipeline Still Flowing Post Facebook

There is quite a slew of large public issues expected in the next few months. The IPO pipeline, according to the Nasdaq exchange, has some big ticket filings as below:

Company                                       Ticker                 Date Filed          Deal Size ($mm)

  • Chesapeake Oilfield Services         COS                         16-Apr                          $863
  • Intelsat SA                                             I                               18-May                       $1,750
  • Domus Holdings                                 DMSH.RC              8-Jun                          $1,000
  • Coty                                                        COTY                      29-Jun                         $700
  • Archstone                                            ASN                         10-Aug                        $500 Estimated
  • Zoetis                                                     ZOET.RC              13-Aug                      $2,000 Estimated

In addition, we see the strong possibility of an IPO by up-market retailer Neiman Marcus, as its private equity holders, Warburg Pincus and TPG, seek to bail out of an investment of $5.1 billion they made in the chain in 2005. According to a report in the WSJ, Neiman has been making various moves that hint that it may be preparing for an IPO. These include revitalizing its e-commerce unit, making an overseas acquisition, and parleys with Wall Street analysts that included Chief Executive Karen Katz. The timing may be right, as luxury is back in fashion, and Neiman, Saks, and Nordstrom have all reported strong earnings.

The situation is somewhat different at Spanish bank Santander, who is likely to make an IPO out of its Mexican unit that may be as large as $4 billion, according to Businessweek. The bank may sell a 25-30 percent stake in the Mexican subsidiary, Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico SAB, and is probably seeking to cash in on the success of the IPO by Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB, Mexico’s biggest publicly-traded bank, which has yielded more than 65 percent returns since listing. The IPO would likely be a strategy by Santander to raise money abroad, while it still can, given its troubled situation at home in Spain.

Given these large IPOs on the anvil, what are the chances of their success? That answer is best found looking at the performance of some of the recent IPOs. According to the Nasdaq exchange, these are the best performing IPOs over the last six months as measured by their returns in percentage:

  • Ubiquiti Networks Inc (NASDAQ:UBNT): 129%
  • Imperva Inc (NYSE:IMPV): 102%
  • Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS): 96.25%
  • Synacor Inc (NASDAQ:SYNC): 93%
  • Guidewire Software Inc (NYSE:GWRE): 88.54%

The worst performers were:

  • U.S. Silica Holdings Inc (NYSE:SLCA): -40.35%
  • Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA):  -44.4%
  • Tudou Hldg Ltd (ADR) (NASDAQ:TUDO): -49.55%
  • Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN): -50.15%
  • Zeltiq Aesthetics Inc (NASDAQ:ZLTQ): -57.38%

As at the time of writing Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) is quoting at $20.07, which is about 47% off its IPO issue price of $38.

The stock has given investors a shock with its performance post-listing, and is expected to plunge further as the lock-in period of some shares expires.

The troubles at Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA) are already well known, and range from abysmal results and gloomy guidance, to allegations of insider trading.

Another high profile issue, Manchester United, issued recently at $14. The stock is already below its IPO price and quoting today at $13.50.

The scenario post Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) and Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA) has led to IPO sizes and prices being cut back. In another article we mentioned how accounting issues could have affected IPO valuations.

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