S&P 500 Quad Witching Fire

Published on

S&P 500 sharply recovered from yesterday‘s shallow premarket decline, and surged on ever strengthening sectoral composition. Tech didn‘t lag, and it was the case of remaining sectors playing catch up, and playing it well. My ES 4,440 zone gave, and even the 4,480 resistance was breached.

Today, stocks face similar situation – overnight consolidation followed by rejection of further retracements in the European session, yet ever present gyrations characteristic of prolonger, euphoric topping process.

Just as the slightly better retail sales with Empire State manufacturing surprise helped in the misguided notion that recession has been avoided, today‘s University of Michigan consumer confidence data isn‘t likely to sink the market – yes, spike continuation (and let‘s see the breadth strength ahead) awaits.

For all the arbitrary 20% delineation line in the sand, I still think that a serious downside awaits whether as drastic as during the dotcom bubble bear market described in Sunday‘s extensive analysis, or not. Given the sharp run up and AI fires still burning hot, I have question marks whether low 4,015s are the realistic target (provided the fuel for this S&P 500 burns out over the next 1-2 weeks) in place of the formerly more easily imaginable low 3,900s.

The key determinant is here – yesterday was a prime example of antidollar plays surging, with more fuel in the form of BoJ remaining as easy as before, prospects of China stimulus, and of course bets against Fed rate hikes.

Mind you, for these bets (by extension also against Fed balance sheet shrinking) to pay off, the central bank would have to be spooked into monetary policy readjustments by negative economic data – and once the stock market realized why, why they are being forced to cut and cutting, then look out below.

usd

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren’t enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.

So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram – benefit and find out why I’m the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500

ES is to remain firmly above 4,440 today and a volatile foray into 4,490 – 4,510 area is quite likely. 4,460 as support should hold on a closing basis today, and I‘m not looking for either tech or value losing steam truly – rather synchronized microtations are to be expected.

market breadth

The following 1-2 weeks would show whether the improvements in market breadth are genuine and to last, or whether the cautious HYG:TLT ratio would presage downside move in SPY:TLT, meaning decreased appetite to chase stock market gains (sentiment already at extreme greed).

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.

While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.

Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley

Stock Trading Signals

Gold Trading Signals

Oil Trading Signals

Copper Trading Signals

Bitcoin Trading Signals

www.monicakingsley.co

[email protected]


All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice.

Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind.

Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make.

Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.