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Silver, Read The Moves.

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One way to gain certainty about the quality of a turning point is by examining the recent past. Looking at the daily chart watching price behavior over the last twenty sessions gives quite some insights into the actual strength of the weekly timeframe turning point and its quality. It is this habit of analyzing price behavior that dictates the aggressiveness of market participation (trade frequency) and money management (exposure size). Silver, Read the moves.

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Not every price advance is the same in its validity. Let us have a look at why recent Silver price movements are so promising:

Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, The giveaway:

Silver Moves
Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 21st, 2021.

A glance at the daily chart above shows with green arrows our entry points on Silver over the last three weeks. We post all entries (and exits) in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The very first three entries (green arrows to the left) were based on momentum. We stepped up to the plate finding fractal volume support, and use the contrarian approach to step into momentum to take advantage of the action/reaction principle supporting our Quad exit strategy for quick risk mitigation of early partial profit-taking.

Another look shows that at points A, B, and C, the lows of each retracement (leg 1,2,3) are very modest in percentage. Meaning the bears didn’t get a foot in the door. Consequently, we built a more aggressive position size. We took advantage of low-risk entry points again.

The final giveaway that price might pierce through the central heart at US$26 of a previous congestion zone is marked with a yellow circle. For four days, price rejected this distribution zone, represented by the long wicks to the upside. But at no time was there a follow-through of price decline to the downside from bears attempting to short US$26.

We now find ourselves positioned well with ten runners left:

Symbol DATE entry fin 50% 1st target 25% 2nd target 25%
(= runner)
XAGUSD 3/30 23.7800000 23.8700000 23.9500000
XAGUSD 3/31 24.3000000 24.3800000 24.8300000
XAGUSD 4/1 24.2800000 24.7100000 24.8400000
XAGUSD 4/4 24.5880000 24.6880000 24.8440000
XAGUSD 4/5 24.7800000 25.0000000 25.1400000
XAGUSD 4/12 24.6900000 24.9300000 25.3500000
XAGUSD 4/13 25.3000000 25.4200000 25.9700000
XAGUSD 4/19 25.7150000 25.8000000 26.0700000
XAGUSD 4/20 25.7550000 25.9400000 26.5470000
XAGUSD 4/20 25.9300000 26.0000000 26.0350000

Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The original plan and its risk:

Silver Moves
Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 1st, 2021.

We posted this monthly chart three weeks ago in our weekly chartbook. Our long-term plan is in motion just as strategized. It is necessary now that we have eliminated the risk to expand our projections and set target zones for our ten runners. We consider them as one whole position unit. We visualize this progression in the following chart.

Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, Read the moves:

Silver Moves
Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 21st, 2021.

We find ourselves not only in a risk-free position but have pocketed some substantial profits. We also carry a 2.5 typical position size in runners (10x 25% of standard size).

This allows for opening up to a more significant risk/reward-ratio. We changed our original target near all-time highs to a runner target now at US$73.33 (based on Fibonacci number sequencing). The financing target for half of the position size is set to US$28.77. We will exit another 25% position size as well at US$47.63. These targets are based on fractal volume analysis of distribution zones.

Silver, Read the moves:

When dealing with more complex methods of risk elimination, position building, transfer time frames, and money management, it is essential to read the market right. While most follow hunches, leverage, or simplified money management and are at most times not even aware of the risk they are taking on, we scrutinize the market in its development of turning points to not arrive at unrecoverable risk positions. Trading isn’t about maximizing profits. It is a constant evaluation of probabilities and market behavior to ride market cycles like surfer ocean waves.

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About the Author: Korbinian Koller

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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