Pandora’s Shares (P) Tank After Earnings Miss and Unfavorable Report

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Pandora's Shares (P) Tank After Earnings Miss and Unfavorable Report

After Pandora Media (NYSE:P) announced a poor fiscal 4Q report on Tuesday, market participants responded on Wednesday but selling off the stock. At midday, shares of Pandora had lost over a fifth of its market value.

The company announced its 4Q numbers after Tuesday’s market close with its revenue and profits coming in below analysts estimates.

For the quarter ending in January, revenue increased to $81.3 million, but came with a 3 cent per share loss. Estimates had been $83 million revenue with 2 cents per share loss.

Adding to Pandora’s woes was its forecast for the current quarter with revenues between $72 million to $75 million and a 18 cents to 21 cents per share loss. The consensus had been $86.5 million in revenues with a  2 cent loss.

On an annual basis, the company forecast revenue between $410 million to $420 million with an 11 cent to 16 cent net loss. This also come in below estimates of $424 million and a 4 cent per share profit.

Pandora executives put on a happy face for investors on Tuesday and argued that the company’s revenue will rise faster over time with a maturing mobile market, according to Dow Jones.  Currently, Pandora’s revenue from this market doesn’t equal what’s on desktops:  Revenue per 1,000 listener hours comes between $60 and $70 on desktops but for mobile devices, it’s near $20.

Pandora Chief Executive Joe Kennedy said on Tuesday’s conference call, “We see no fundamental difference in the long-term monetization potential between the desktop and the mobile devices that now constitute the majority of our usage.”  He added that  the company’s present revenue inequality shows “the nascent state of the mobile advertising market” but it is a fast-growing.

Kennedy also said that he envisions Pandora as the biggest radio station in most U.S. markets by year’s end and from this, “our relevance to buyers of traditional radio advertising is skyrocketing.”

This didn’t convince market watchers as Pandora is currently down 24.18 percent to $10.78. These are levels last seen in January and well below its IPO offering price in June 2011 at $16.

Not helping matters on Wednesday morning were two analyst downgrades.

Aaron Kessler of Raymond James

Kesseler cut his rating from “Outperform” to “Market Perform.” He also got rid of his $15 price target and wrote in his report, “We believe the shares are likely to be range-bound until we see greater traction with mobile monetization particularly local radio advertising) and improved operating margins.”

He also cut his earnings per share estimate for 2012 to a 28 cent net loss from a previous estimate of an 8 cent net loss. Looking ahead, he chopped his 2014 estimate to a negative 23 cents per share from a previous estimate of a 3 cent loss.

Mark Mahaney of Citigroup

Mahaney cut his rating from “Buy” to “Neutral” with a price target to $17 from $25. He wrote, “We initiated on P with a Buy/High Risk last July with the stock at $18. That call clearly hasn’t worked.”

He added “with no profitability track record and no near-term profitable outlook – P always carried very little margin for error. And now there’s error.”

Mahaney also cut his 2012 earnings per share estimate to a 16 cent net loss from his prior estimate of a 13 cent loss. The analyst  also slashed his 2014 forecast to a 20 cent loss from the previous estimate of -9 cents.


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