Bullish signals and historical patterns point to upside potential, but downside risks remain elevated
XRP was trading at $2.13 as of Monday, up more than 5% in 24 hours, as traders assessed whether the token is on track for a breakout toward $2.50 or facing a reversal to $1.90.
The price jump follows renewed momentum from Ripple’s long-running legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is now in its final stage after both parties agreed in principle to settle.
The case began in 2020 when the SEC sued Ripple, alleging its sale of XRP constituted an unregistered securities offering.
Ripple has committed to paying a reduced $50 million fine, and a joint motion has been filed to suspend all appeals while the court finalizes the outcome.
CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed in a recent Fox Business interview that Ripple is “moving on” from what he called “a Gensler-era misstep”.
“A XRP ETF is just simply inevitable,” he added.
Legal clarity and whale inflows strengthen near-term support
Ripple’s settlement appears to have catalyzed a new wave of investor confidence. In the days leading up to the rally, Ripple transferred 200 million XRP, worth over $400 million, to an unknown wallet, coinciding with XRP’s price rebound from $1.94 to $2.13.
Glassnode data shows retail participation remains elevated, with XRP’s realized cap rising from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion in February.
Despite this momentum, risks remain. Glassnode noted that 62.8 percent of the realized cap is held by recent buyers, exposing the market to heightened volatility if prices dip.
But with the SEC dispute nearly resolved, Ripple is now pivoting to large-scale institutional growth. This includes its $1.25 billion acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road, a move designed to onboard firms such as BlackRock into XRP-powered infrastructure.
Garlinghouse added that Ripple’s upcoming stablecoin, filed under a New York trust license, would have been “impossible a year ago”.
ETF filings and historical patterns fuel long-term bullish outlook
The rally also reignites speculation around XRP’s future price trajectory. Since November, the token has gained more than 400%, with analysts drawing parallels to its 2017 cycle, when it surged over 700 percent after breaking long-term resistance.
A major catalyst for institutional demand may come from exchange-traded funds. On April 8, the SEC postponed its decision on Grayscale’s proposed XRP ETF, pushing the review deadline to May 21.
While regulatory approvals may take months, sentiment remains strong heading into Ripple’s next court milestone, a crucial hearing scheduled for April 16.
Analysts say a final settlement confirmation could cement the token’s legal status, opening the door to broader adoption, future ETF approvals, and whether this rally continues or quickly runs out of steam.
