VanEck CEO Jan van Eck believes Bitcould could potentially reach a price target of $400,000 based on one very simple model.
The theory, based analysis by VanEck, is that Bitcoin only needs to reach half the market cap of gold to reach that lofty figure. Bitcoin has been branded as “digital gold” for many years and has several notable advantages over the precious metal, not the least of which is being far easier to transport.
Jan van Eck described this projection as a function of mathematical modeling and evolving market structure, underpinned by clear supply and demand dynamics.
The supply-side argument is foundational and embedded in BTC’s design.
This programmed scarcity is compounded by the behavior of long-term holders. As an increasing proportion of the outstanding supply (about 70%) has been taken off exchanges and moved into cold storage, the actively traded float continues to shrink, creating a structurally tighter market.
On the demand side, the landscape has matured. The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has provided a regulated and accessible conduit for institutional capital.
These funds, including VanEck’s own HODL, have accumulated a huge and growing share of the available supply, roughly 6.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Data reveals that leading ETFs, such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, hold hundreds of thousands of BTC collectively.
When the daily inflows into these products routinely rival or exceed 450 new coins minted daily, the resulting buy-side pressure would influence the price upward, even in the absence of new network developments.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Positions (2025)
| Sponsor: | ETF Ticker: | BTC Holdings: | Est. Value (USD): | Initial Filing Date: |
| BlackRock iShares | IBIT | 750,780 | $84B | 2023 |
| Fidelity | FBTC | 201,069 | $22B | 2023 |
| Grayscale | GBTC | 177,886 | $20B | 2021 |
| ARK 21Shares | ARKB | 43,111 | $4.86B | 2023 |
| Bitwise | BITB | 40,331 | $4.56B | 2023 |
| VanEck | HODL | 17,290 | $1.95B | 2023 |
| CoinShares Valkyrie | BRRR | 5,838 | $657M | 2023 |
| Franklin Templeton | EZBC | 5,558 | $626M | 2023 |
| Invesco Galaxy | BTCO | 5,189 | $584M | 2023 |
| WisdomTree | BTCW | 1,594 | $179M | 2023 |
Source: Bitbo
Moreover, days of outsized deposits, such as when BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK)’s iShares Bitcoin Trust pulled in $436 million in a single day, underscore how quickly that buy-side pressure can compound.
VanEck’s Bitcoin bet: strategic genius or just good timing?
VanEck’s analysis carries a degree of credibility due to its established history within the digital asset space. The firm filed for a Bitcoin futures ETF years before spot products went live, and it pledged a portion of spot ETF profits to support Bitcoin Core developers.
These actions can be viewed as a long-term commitment to ecosystem development, rather than short-term speculation.
Nonetheless, Van Eck’s $400,000 target is a long-term theoretical benchmark, distinct from nearer-term price predictions for 2025.
The thesis hinges on Bitcoin securing a significant role as a store of value relative to gold, an outcome that is not yet certain.
