The indexes were all trending higher on Monday on a potential softening of U.S. tariff stance.
The markets eked out a win last week, thanks to a Friday afternoon surge that lifted all the major indexes into positive territory for the week.
For the S&P 500, it ended four straight weeks of losses, and for the Nasdaq it stopped a five-week losing streak.
Markets were headed higher to the start the week, buoyed by a report from the Wall Street Journal that the April 2 tariffs will be narrower in scope that originally thought. The Journal and Bloomberg also reported that some countries will be excluded from tariffs and there could be some flexibility in the reciprocal tariff plan.
All of the major indexes were up Monday morning, as investors were hopeful that this is a sign of temperatures cooling in the trade war.
Other than tariffs, there are several pieces of economic news investors will be looking toward this week.
Consumer confidence and inflation
On Tuesday, investors will be watching the March consumer confidence report to see where consumers stand in this uncertain economic environment. The consumer confidence index has dropped for three straight months heading into March, with the February decline being the largest since 2021.
On Friday, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for February comes out. This key gauge of inflation had been rising in recent months, but in January it ticked down to 2.5%, from 2.6% in December.
CPI Inflation for February, released two weeks ago, dropped to 2.8%, marking the first time in 5 months it has gone down. Investors will be hoping that the PCE follows the CPI results and falls again in February. Another month of declining inflation rates would create some momentum for the Fed to lower rates, but the future is clouded by the potential impact of tariffs, which go into effect on April 2.
Some bellwethers report earnings this week
In the last full week of the first quarter, there are some earnings reports that bear watching. One is Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), which reports earnings on Wednesday morning. Dollar Tree is somewhat of an economic bellwether. As a retailer of discounted goods, Dollar Tree typically outperforms in slowing or weaker economies, so it bears watching how its revenue and earnings are trending.
The other key earnings release to watch is Jefferies Financial (NYSE:JEF), a Wall Street investment bank. It gets the jump on the big banks, which are typically the first to report each quarter, because Jefferies’ quarter ends one month before the others.
In this case, Jefferies quarterly earnings are through February 28. How it does in terms earnings, revenue, and in deal-making and M&A will inform how the large players might do when they report earnings starting in the second week of April.
Other notable earnings this week come from McCormick (NYSE:MKC), the spice company which reports on Tuesday morning. McCormick is one of the best dividend stocks on the market, having raised its dividend for 38 straight years.
Also, meme stock GameStop (NYSE:GME) puts out its earnings on Tuesday afternoon, while Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) releases earnings on Thursday.
