JPMorgan analysts justify a $165K Bitcoin price by reframing it as a mathematical correction to align with gold’s value.
Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $165,000 by the end of 2025, according to JPMorgan analysts, who argue that the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains undervalued relative to gold when adjusted for volatility.
In a report led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the Wall Street bank said Bitcoin’s current $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to rise by about 42% to match the scale of private gold holdings once risk is accounted for.
“This mechanical exercise could imply significant upside for Bitcoin,” the analysts noted, pointing out that Bitcoin has shifted from being $36,000 overvalued at the end of 2024 to $46,000 undervalued today.
Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio narrows as investors flock to the ‘Debasement Trade’
JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted position versus gold has improved significantly this year. The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has now fallen below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin consumes just 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P
Based on this ratio, the analysts said Bitcoin would need to reach $165,000 to align with approximately $6 trillion in privately held gold through ETFs, bars, and coins.
The bank attributed this shift to the expanding “debasement trade,” a growing investor movement toward assets that can hedge against inflation, fiscal deficits, and currency devaluation.
Key Insights from JPMorgan’s Analysis:
- Retail investors have led most inflows into BTC and gold ETFs since late 2024.
- Institutional demand via CME futures remains limited, highlighting a retail-driven market.
- Bitcoin ETF inflows spiked early in 2025 but slowed by August, while gold ETF inflows increased.
- The gap between Bitcoin and gold investments has narrowed as capital shifts within the hedge trade.
- Gold’s recent rally has deepened Bitcoin’s relative undervaluation.
JPMorgan’s earlier projection in August placed Bitcoin’s year-end target at $126,000, but the latest revision reflects gold’s stronger performance and Bitcoin’s tighter correlation. The outlook adds to a broader wave of bullish forecasts, with several firms now predicting Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000.
Can Bitcoin realistically hit $165K? Analysts weigh in
Milk Road Macro analysts pointed to Bitcoin’s historic correlation with gold, stating that “Bitcoin tends to follow gold three to four months down the line.”
The firm compared both gold/USD and BTC/USD patterns, observing that gold’s earlier breakout could foreshadow Bitcoin’s next leg up.
Gold price performance. Source: Milk Road Macro
In their analysis, Bitcoin appears to be replicating gold’s “rise, pause, and last-minute spike” formation. If the trend holds, Milk Road Macro predicts a 50% to 100% price rally, placing Bitcoin’s potential range between $160,000 and $220,000 by late 2025.
BTC price performance. Source: Milk Road Macro
Meanwhile, prominent trader Mister Crypto described the ongoing pattern as a “textbook bullish retest,” predicting a strong breakout soon.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $122,528, holding steady despite global macro uncertainty.
