Analyst says “no U.S. tech company is more negatively impacted by these tariffs than Apple.”
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock recovered some of its losses on Wednesday afternoon, rising more than 15% after President Donald Trump put a 90-day pause on any additional tariffs.
It was a much-needed relief for Apple investors, as the stock price had dropped about 23% since the tariffs were announced last week before Wednesday’s rally.
But the fact remains that Apple is still facing huge headwinds, as massive tariffs have been imposed on China. On Wednesday, when Trump paused additional tariffs on its trading partners, he raised them on China to a total of 125%, up from the previous 104%.
As Apple makes about 80% of its iPhones in China, but sells most of them in the U.S., it creates a situation where Apple will pay huge tariffs. Those costs, in turn, will get passed down to consumers. The result could be a massive increase in the price of iPhones.
CNET did an analysis, factoring in the 125% tariffs, and found that iPhones could more than double in price. On the cheaper end, the iPhone 15, for example, could go from $699 to $1,573. And on the other end of the spectrum, the iPhone 16 Pro Max could go from $1,119 to $2,698.
“Complete disaster” for Apple
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the tariffs a “complete disaster” for Apple.
“The tariff economic Armageddon unleashed by Trump is a complete disaster for Apple given its massive China production exposure,” Ives said, reported Quartz and Yahoo Finance. “In our view, no U.S. tech company is more negatively impacted by these tariffs than Apple with 90% of iPhones produced and assembled in China.”
Wedbush cut its price target for Apple from $325 per share to $250 per share. The $250 per share target is the median among analysts, which is still up some 32% from the current price.
Apple has been scrambling to offset the impact of the massive tariffs on China. The Wall Street Journal and other outlets reported this week, before the tariff pause, that Apple planned to move more iPhone production to India. This trend was already underway, as the Financial Times reported in February that Apple planned to make 25% of its iPhones in India by 2027, up from 15% now.
That is likely to be accelerated, as additional tariffs were paused on India. But even if they are reinstated in 90 days, they are just 24% for India compared to the massive 125% tariffs on China.
600 tons of iPhones shipped to U.S.
Also, it was reported by Reuters and the Times of India on Thursday that Apple shipped five cargo planes full of iPhones, about 600 tons of iPhones, to the U.S. in late March before the tariffs kicked in.
This should provide some relief from tariffs as well, at least in the short term.
Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Woodring, in a research note circulated Thursday, said Apple could offset tariffs impacts by moving more of its production and supply chain through India.
“Fast-ramping India production and targeted iPhone mix shift could significantly minimize the tariff headwind,” Woodring wrote, according to Investing.com.
Currently, he said, Apple makes 30 million to 40 million iPhones in India. They would have to double that to 60 million to 80 million, Woodring said. But this would take some time, at least 6 to 12 months.
Woodring suggested other ways the company could mitigate tariff impact, including eliminating lower-priced models, but keeping prices of newer models stable, thus raising the average selling price. They could also extend financing options to allow people to pay over more years.
The analyst said that if India made 60% of iPhones for the U.S., it could minimize the tariff impact to $17 billion and the EPS impact to 30 cents per share.
Longer term, Apple announced in February that it was investing $500 billion in manufacturing plants in the U.S., but Wedbush’s Ives said that it would take at least three years to move just 10% of production to the U.S., reported the BBC.
