Lowest Initial Claims Reading Since April 2000

Lowest Initial Claims Reading Since April 2000

“Davidson” submits:

Initial Jobless Claims lowest since April 15, 2000. I have no idea why the din continues to be “Woe is our economy!!” The history from FRED is below:http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ICSA/downloaddata


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Before April 15, 2000 the last time we were at these levels was December 1, 1975 as Initial Claims rose into a recession. Each time we saw declining Initial Claims we were well in an economic recovery as other economic data indicates we are today.

Initial Claims
Initial Claims

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CNBC had one after another prognosticator issue statements concerning how poorly the economy was performing, One even said to expect an 8% correction by the ‘Sell in May’ crowd ($SPY). This data does not let one make short term predictions regardless what people say. It does help to understand the current trends in our economy  which have been quite  positive since they peaked March 2009 with a 665,000 reading.

Updated on

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.
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