How Long-Term Macro Trends Will Impact 2022 – Commentary

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How Long-Term Macro Trends Will Impact 2022 – Commentary
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US financial markets are witnessing significant growth amid this week’s “Santa Claus rally.” As you continue to cover this rapidly evolving news, Below is a long-term commentary from Kevin Philip, Managing Director at Bel Air Investment Advisors, a high-net-worth wealth management firm that oversees and manages over $8 billion in assets for 350 high-net-worth families, individuals, and foundations. 

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In his commentary, Kevin offers his perspective on the macro trends of global health, economics, and politics and how these trends are likely to impact the markets in the long-term as 2022 approaches. 

Long-Term Impact Of The Macro Trends

“Despite global surges in Covid cases, the markets are reflecting the new reality that Covid is here to stay albeit more on our terms than its. With vaccines, boosters, treatments, and rising herd immunity, it seems more and more like a manageable virus in line with colds and flus than what it originally was.” 

“The data out of South Africa regarding hospitalizations and the new updated guidance from the CDC are truly encouraging. Society and our politicians are adjusting to ‘no closure’ policies, allowing those who would like to be more cautious to self-isolate, while others confident in our treatments can move forward to a less protective mode.” 

“Next year, in my opinion, we are facing less of a Covid-influenced world, and a return toward normalcy. The US has a new infrastructure program in place, with less likelihood of higher personal and corporate tax rates. We also have a friendly Federal Reserve, which the market views is responsibly accelerating its wind-down of QE.” 

“All in all, a balanced, reasonable economic environment with corporate America remaining robust with strong balance sheets and a consumer who is either fully employed or could be if she/he so chooses.” 

Supply chain woes are well known but will be fixed; and until they are completely fixed, the stress should likely be significantly less in the coming six months.” 

“The weakest and hardest hit sectors by COVID remain the travel and hospitality sector, along with commerce centered around large business districts. Within these weaker areas may lie the strength to next year’s markets.” 

“I continue to believe the innovation in technology will keep it a dominant sector, and Web3 (or Web 3.0) will be an even more accretive economic driver for years to come.” 

“So with any bounce in travel, hospitality, and “return-to-office” sectors, coupled with continued strength in technology, I believe we are in a sustained growth economy and the stock markets will deliver positive returns accordingly.”


About Kevin W. Philip 

Kevin W. Philip, Managing Director at Bel Air Investment Advisors

Kevin joined Bel Air in 2002 and is responsible for providing investment advice to individuals, families, and foundations.  As a member of the firm’s investment committee, Kevin has extensive experience with asset allocation modeling and asset manager evaluation in addition to estate structuring. Kevin has assisted with a number of firm-wide efforts that have helped propel the firm’s growth for over 15 years. Prior to joining Bel Air, Kevin worked at Morgan Stanley and the U.S. State Department in Berlin. 

Kevin is very active in the Los Angeles community and serves on the board of directors for the True Colors Fund and the Pacific Southwest Region of the Anti-Defamation League. 

After attending Junipero Serra High School in the San Francisco Bay Area where he was born and raised, Kevin received his B.A. from Stanford University, where as a student he was hired to standardize student organizations’ financial management processes. In addition to investing, his hobbies include fitness, traveling, politics and foreign languages. 

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