Home Business Facing Damocles Sword

Facing Damocles Sword

When you purchase through our sponsored links, we may earn a commission. By using this website you agree to our T&Cs.

S&P 500 confirmed the daily outlook yesterday, and did really well. The signs before the close also favored bullish entry into today. VIX kept declining, UVXY confirming – no surprise that the bears were weak intraday, and likely would first have to deal with a spiking stock market before we see a repeat of the latest Fed minutes release (daily stall followed by reversal). CBOE put/call ratiois not too much out of balance, favoring a nice move today. USD is uncovincing given the delicate balancing the Fed has to do while still appearing (and crucially acting) resolute. Tough job to regain inflation fighting credentials when the “transitory” horse has left the barn many quarters ago. Given the continued weakness of the sellers going into the Powell speech, the nimble intraday traders among you may be tempted to join the buyers temporarily, eyeing the exit door should Powell truly surprise and deliver credibly.

Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

 

As written yesterday:

(…) The risk-on move won‘t be shattered by the upcoming (Sep start is almost here) of the $95bn balance sheet shrinking operations. I think the markets would be willing to buy into the dovish interpretation as readily as the July‘s Powell Fed funds rate being near the neutral rate remark, and this jubilation can possibly stretch through Monday or until VIX hits the 21.50 – 21 area. While Treasury yields are rising, the stall speed of USD hints also at a dovish reaction before the big picture takes over.

To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500

S&P 500 is positioned to extend gains, the pullback turned out to be a healthy one only as another attempt at the 200-d moving average is possible. See the modest rise in volume. 4,250 can be easily beaten today.

Credit Markets

Credit Markets

HYG gathered speed before the close, setting the tone for a bullish showing today – openly doubting the likely hawkish message ahead – it‘s about the ability to execute. That goes for long-dated Treasuries to a good degree too even if the Sep tightening expectations continue to favor 75bp hike.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin

Crypto is the only fly in the daily bullish ointment. The chart is still ugly (bearish).

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this endeavor possible!

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley

Stock Trading Signals

Gold Trading Signals

Oil Trading Signals

Copper Trading Signals

Bitcoin Trading Signals

www.monicakingsley.co

[email protected]


All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Our Editorial Standards

At ValueWalk, we’re committed to providing accurate, research-backed information. Our editors go above and beyond to ensure our content is trustworthy and transparent.

Monica Kingsley
Editor

Want Financial Guidance Sent Straight to You?

  • Pop your email in the box, and you'll receive bi-weekly emails from ValueWalk.
  • We never send spam — only the latest financial news and guides to help you take charge of your financial future.