Earnings Preview: Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NOK) To Post Weak Results

Earnings Preview: Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NOK) To Post Weak Results
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Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) is expected to report weak financial results for the first quarter on Thursday, April 18 around 1:00 PM, Helsinki Time (CET+1).

Earnings Preview: Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NOK) To Post Weak Results

BNP Paribas analyst Martin Hunter, said that the research firm’s earnings expectation for the company is below the consensus estimate of Wall Street analysts. According to him, the research firm has a more bearish estimate for Lumia volumes, which is 4.3 million units compared with the 5.6 million consensus estimate. The research firm’s expectation on adjusted operating margin of the key D&S division of Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) is at the lowest end at -4 percent compared with -2 percent consensus.

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Hunter estimated that Finnish smartphone manufacturer will post a negative free cash flow (FCF) of €0.70 billion in the first quarter. He believed that result will disappoint the market. On the other hand, Hunter believe that Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V)’s liquidity position is still healthy with an estimated cash position of €2.6 billion or €3.6 billion excluding NSN.

The analyst said that the primary issue confronting Nokia is whether wholly-owned business D&S is capable of generating substantial FCF in the medium term, given the strong liquidity position of the company. He estimated that D&S will burn approximately €0.5 billion cash in the first quarter and it will remain FCG negative next year.

In a note to investors, Hunter wrote, “Unfortunately we expect cash burn of €0.5bn in Q1. We note that Q1 will be negatively impacted by (1) €150mn of cash restructuring expenses at D&S (as per Nokia guidance); (2) falling net receipts from Microsoft as minimum royalty payments offset a greater chunk of the €200mn quarterly platform support payments, (3) our expectations of other working capital outflows (€200mn).”

Hunter estimated that Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V)’s wholly-owned businesses underlying cash burn will be approximately €0.6 billion in 2013 and €0.2 billion in 2014.

According to Hunter, Lumia 520, the low-priced smartphone of Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V), will determine the company’s success since he does not expect the company to gain significant market share in the high-end smartphone market.

BNP Paribas’ revenue forecast for Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) for the first quarter of 2012 is around €6.439 billion and operating profit will be -€314 million. Its estimated adjusted EBITDA is around €79 million.

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