Over the past decade there has been a very strong relationship between US 10-year treasury yields and the gold/copper ratio. As the gold/copper ratio increases (i.e. gold becomes more expensive relative to copper), yields have fallen to the tune of an -85% correlation. On 12/5/16, the gold/copper ratio made a low and has since increased by 6%. Yields followed suit and peaked on 12/15/16 and have rallied 22 bps including today’s price moves. If the 12/5 low for the gold/copper ratio holds, it isn’t a stretch to imagine that 2.60% on the 10-year ultimately is proven to be the peak of the “Trump trade”.
Article by Eric Bush, CFA
