Commercial traders are net long more bond contracts than at any point since 1992 other than in the spring/summer of 2005 according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They were a bit early in 2005 but ultimately 10-year yields declined from 5.25% in 2006 to 2% in 2008. 5-year yields ultimately declined from 5.15% to 1.36%.
Article by Eric Bush, CFA – Gavekal Capital Blog
