Home » Business

Buying The Dip In Colgate-Palmolive

Published on
  • Colgate-Palmolive share corrected after Q4 results were released. 
  • An analyst is calling the bottom and raised the stocks rating to Outperform. 
  • Dividend increases and capital returns should help support price action as well. 
  • 5 stocks we like better than Colgate-Palmolive

Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) shares were corrected in January and hit new lows in the wake of the Q4 earnings report but this looks like a buyable bottom. An analyst is not only calling the bottom but the market is responding in kind.

Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF

Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more


Analyst Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley upped the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight calling it a Top Pick while citing the pullback as an opportunity in this well-positioned stock.

In his view, Colgate-Palmolive is showing pricing power due to the 17% premium it offers to consumers relative to other brands. This should help drive business as consumers trade down to less expensive products and has it set up to easily beat the F23 guidance. 

The guidance calls for growth as it is but only in line with the expectations. If the analyst community begins to think their estimates are too low, they could begin to raise their targets as well and help drive higher share prices.

As it is, the analysts have the stock pegged at a Hold verging on Buy, which has been steady for the last year and the price target is offering some upside. Morgan Stanley’s $82 target is in-line with the Marketbeat.com consensus which suggests at least 12% of upside is remaining and that is on top of the dividend. 

Colgate-Palmolive Has Mixed Quarter, Dividend Safe 

Colgate-Palmolive had a mixed quarter in regard to analyst expectations, but the results reveal solid business, stable revenue and the cash flow to continue improving operations and shareholder value. The company reported $4.63 billion in net revenue for a gain of 5.2% over the last year.

This was driven by pricing increases that left revenue $0.050 billion or 100 bps above the Marketbeat.com consensus with leadership in toothpaste and toothbrushes maintained. On an organic basis, not including divestiture and acquisition of a private-label operation, sales are up 8.5%. 

The bad news is that the gross margin contracted by 250 basis points which are slightly above the consensus and just enough to offset the top-line strength. The adjusted $0.77 in EPS is down 3.0% and as-expected, which helped to drive the share price implosion in the wake of the report.

The guidance is equally tepid, with revenue and earnings growth expected to be in the low to mid-single digits but the risk appears to be to the upside. 

Colgate-Palmolive Returns Capital To Shareholders 

Colgate-Palmolive returns capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. The company is paying about 2.6% with shares trading near $74, and there is a robust outlook for dividend increases. The company should not be expected to make large annual increases.

Still, the 59-year history of consecutive annual increases and 62% payout ratio suggest the 3% CAGR can be maintained indefinitely in the presence of the forecasted revenue and earnings growth. As for repurchases, the company announced a new $5 billion share repurchase program in mid-2022 and still has the lion’s share of that money left to spend. That’s worth about 6% of the market cap. 

The Technical Outlook: Colgate-Palmolive Hits Bottom 

Shares of Colgate-Palmolive hit bottom at a key support target after the Q4 results, and the rebound is now on. The upgrade has the stock up more than 2.5% and shows clear signs of support.

Assuming the market follows through on this move, the stock should begin to move sideways while it reestablishes a base. Once done, upward price movement could resume, and the analysts could be the ones to get that movement started. 


Should you invest $1,000 in Colgate-Palmolive right now?

Before you consider Colgate-Palmolive, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Colgate-Palmolive wasn't on the list.

While Colgate-Palmolive currently has a "Hold" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

Article by Thomas Hughes, MarketBeat