Via Crescat Capital
At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September 2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in 2018 as a result of our bearish macro views and positioning last year. We are confident that was only the beginning of a downturn in asset prices from record global leverage and central-bank-driven asset bubbles for this cycle. US asset bubbles only just began to burst at the end of last year as on can see in the chart below.
Stone House Capital Partners returned 4.1% for September, bringing its year-to-date return to 72% net. The S&P 500 is up 14.3% for the first nine months of the year. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Stone House follows a value-based, long-long term and concentrated investment approach focusing on companies rather than the market Read More
How do we get to a recession? US stock market and corporate credit bubble must burst first. That is how the business cycle works. It started in the fourth quarter, but that was only the beginning. How do bubbles burst? The smart money sells first from record valuations, then the rest of the world follows. Note in the chart below how insiders began selling heavily in early 2017. But the rest of the world did not follow. The stock market kept going higher. So, they sold again in early 2018. That time, the stock market finally began to falter. Global stocks peaked and kept going down. But the US market went to new highs again in September 2018. Now insiders are selling heavily again in early 2019. The third time should be the charm.