Business

Jeffrey Gundlach – Inflation Is Inflationary [Slides]

DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund webcast slides for the month of March 2018 titled, “Inflation Is Inflationary.”

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TAB I - U.S. Recession?

LEI (YoY) Heading into Recessions

Since January 1960

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of January 31, 2018

LEI = Leading Economic Indicators is a measurable economic factor that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. YoY = year‐over‐year. You cannot invest directly in an index.

ISM PMI Leading Up to Recessions

December 31, 1947 to February 28, 2017

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of January 31, 2018

ISM = Institute of Supply Management. Purchase Manager’s Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector and is based on: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. YoY = year‐over year. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Measures of Business and Consumer Sentiment

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of February 28, 2018

Z‐score indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. Standard deviation measures the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. You cannot invest directly in an index.

U.S. High Yield Spread Heading into Recession

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of March 5, 2018

US HY = Moody’s Bond Indices Corporate BAA Index are an average of the daily values for the corresponding month and weekly values are averages for the daily yields of the corresponding week. Spread = the difference between the yields of two bonds with differing credit ratings. You cannot invest directly in an index.

TAB II – The Fed & the Deficit

U.S. Budget Deficit % of GDP

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

GDP = Gross domestic Product measures the amount of goods and services produced within a given country. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Projected Annual Budget Deficits

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: Societe Generale

Global Central Bank Balance Sheet

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: JPMorgan as of December 31, 2017

BOJ = Bank of japan, ECB = European Central Bank, BOE = Bank of England

S&P 500 Debt Schedule

Jeffrey Gundlach - Inflation Is Inflationary

Source: JPMorgan As of February 21, 2018

S&P 500 Index is the American stocks market index based on market capitalizations of 500 largest companies having common stocks listed on NYSE and NASDAQ. You cannot invest directly in an index.

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