Facebook Inc (FB) stock apparently hit a ceiling when it touched yet another record high — the second record high in less than a month. Shares soared to $136.79 on Wednesday before retreating on Thursday. The previous all-time high for Facebook Inc (FB) stock was $135.49, which was set on Feb. 2.
Facebook (FB) stock just part of a wider trend
Shares also managed a new record closing price on Wednesday at $136.12, ahead of the previous record set on Feb. 8, which was $134.20.
As Facebook Inc (FB) stock retreated on Thursday, so did most of the other big tech names that have also set record highs this year. Microsoft, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) were all in the red at the time of this writing. And all these big tech names are rising and falling pretty much in tandem with major indices, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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Facebook (FB) stock could drop off very soon
So will Facebook Inc (FB) stock be able to keep up the momentum for the near future? Seeking Alpha contributor Damon Verial warns that it might not, particularly because it almost always loses in March. He describes himself as “strongly bullish” on the name but adds that he only feels “the urge to write about” it when he thinks it is overvalued.
He says he did call a pullback in Facebook Inc (FB) stock in the past when it fell $10 to $123 per share over the four days following his call. Then it fell to $115 over the next two weeks. Of course the stock rallied, as he says it “always” will, but he notes that anyone who held through that pullback “missed a significant buyback opportunity that would have more than accommodated a transition from capital gains tax on long-term holdings to income tax on short-term holdings for most sizable positions.”
Facebook (FB) stock in overbought territory
Verial noted that Facebook Inc (FB) stock has been in overbought territory since the end of January, which means it probably won’t take much to set off a downward spiral. He pointed to seasonal patterns in data on the stock showing where it almost always goes in each month. According to him, Facebook stock almost always ends January in the green, and its highest Sharpe ratio also is in January. Average gains during the month stand at 10%.
But in February, he said the stock’s Sharpe ratio has fallen to zero, making the month neutral. Then in March, the Sharpe ratio turns negative, “hinting at a significant opportunity cost.” He adds that even long-term holders may find it beneficial to avoid the stock during the worst months, which includes March, May and August. These months aren’t usually earnings months anyway, and they’re well after the holiday season at a time when spending on digital advertising starts to fall.
He does feel that long is the only “logical” position to take on Facebook Inc (FB) when looking at it from a long-term fundamental perspective.