Puerto Rico: How To Play Hardball With Bondholders

Puerto Rico: How To Play Hardball With Bondholders
Photo by Kurious (Pixabay)

How much of its more than $8 billion in debt can the essentially bankrupt Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority pay back?

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A federal oversight board appointed four months ago to supervise debt restructuring for the entire Puerto Rican government offered up an indication last week. The board, empaneled in October under the auspices of the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) and tasked with helping Puerto Rico address its deepening financial crisis, posted a letter to Gov. Gov. Ricardo Rosselló that sketches a broad path toward fiscal stability for the commonwealth.

One blunt takeaway: Puerto Rican government debt is worth about 21 cents on the dollar.

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In a briefing memo we published this morning, we key in on the board’s finding that in fiscal year 2019 (which begins in October), Puerto Rico’s taxpayers can afford to pay perhaps $800 million in debt service on the government’s $64 billion in outstanding debt. That $800 million amounts to about 21 percent of the $3.9 billion that the commonwealth is supposed to pay over that time span.

By framing the debate over Puerto Rico’s financial problems in so realistic a way, the oversight board is only doing its job. This contrasts with the proposed PREPA debt-restructuring deal put together last year by fee-driven consultants, an inattentive board, an overwhelmed staff, and a public service commission hamstrung by legislation. That proposal—not to put too fine a point on it—stands to protect and enrich bondholders at the expense of Puerto Ricans.

Puerto Rico is in no position to do what is solely in the interest of creditors, however. The commonwealth’s economy is expected to continue to shrink, declining by 1.1 percent annually over the next decade.

Contrary to this stark reality, PREPA’s proposed debt deal assumes that Puerto Rico’s ratepayers can afford to pay nearly $940 million in annual debt service on a debt load of just over $8 billion. Ratepayers are being told, in other words, they must shoulder the full cost of indebtedness—while other government debt is worth only 21 percent of face value.

The oversight board, by contrast, has considered Puerto Rico’s baseline needs for schools, hospitals and other public services. It has looked at its revenues (a combination of local taxes and federal revenue) and concluded that the government’s annual operations deficit is $3.7 billion. It has addressed that gap with proposed austerity savings and revenue increases worth $4.5 billion. This is where the $800 million “implied surplus” for debt service comes from. Note that the oversight board cautions that the figure may be overly optimistic

PREPA, by contrast, has decided bondholders come first, and it has set aside $940 billion from its $3.7 billion budget for debt service. The recent order  granting PREPA a rate increase shows that the agency has done very little to determine its actual needs, and the order states bluntly that information provided by PREPA is largely unsupported by documentation.

 WHITE PREPA INSISTS THAT IT HAS WRUNG ALL CONCESSIONS POSSIBLE OUT OF CREDITORS, THE OVERSIGHT BOARD’S APPROACH SUGGEST OTHERWISE. By saying up front that Puerto Rico is broke and can afford only to pay perhaps 21 percent of what it owes, the board is making clear that the settlement of Puerto Rican government and PREPA debt obligations will be occur through negotiation.

Discussions will not be driven by supposed jurisprudence, fears for future bond market access, regional pride or plays on morality.

PREPA failed at the outset by proposing a budget that did not consider either customers’ ability to pay or the pressing needs of the island’s electricity system. It went in too gently and gave up too easily. We have pointed out that PREPA’s proposal will have it making payments on debt levels that by its own admission are higher than the market value of that debt. We’ve pointed out also that an audit that if used correctly can lower PREPA’s liability and that Moody’s Investors Service has stated PREPA’s bondholder debt recovery should be in the range of 65 percent to 80 percent—not 100 percent (although we think it should be less that what Moody’s says).

The oversight board’s budget methodology and its opening gambit show that there are ways to relieve PREPA’s debt burden.

While the board has not taken a position on the PREPA refinancing deal in deference to a review by the newly elected Rosselló, it is arranging an independent accounting into the true scope of Puerto Rico’s debt burden. We note that the governor in his response to the board acknowledges that an average 79 percent bondholder haircut is in play in his budget considerations.

These steps, pursued collectively, will allow for a meeting of the minds around a sensible, uniform debt strategy that will help the badly damaged Puerto Rican economy recover.

A deal must—and will—be hammered out by the federal government, the commonwealth government, and the investment houses that hold the highest stakes.

Tom Sanzillo is IEEFA’s director of finance.


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Article by IEEFA

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  1. Is the Congressional Natural Resources Committee a Ship of Fools?

    Look no further than their solution for the Puerto Rico financial meltdown.

    In June of 2016, The Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) was created by congress, through the Natural Resources Committee, as a proposed solution for the financial crisis in Puerto Rico.

    The Act reversed decades of case law protecting creditors and investors alike. The Act’s extraordinary measures put a temporary hold on all lawsuits and confiscated the investors bonds without just compensation.

    Prior to the passing of the PROMESA legislation all members of the Congress and Senate were made aware that there was likely massive fraud and corruption associated with the issuance of the islands $70 billion dollars in bonds. Rather than hold the Issuing Agencies, the Ratings Agencies and the major Wall Street Banks accountable, they threw the innocent bond investors under the bus.

    To add insult to injury, Puerto Rico had a long and well know legacy of Corruption and theft.

    • Between 2005 and 2010, more than 1,700 Puerto Rico police officers were arrested for crimes including murder, assault, theft, domestic violence, and drug trafficking.

    Puerto Rico has a very small police force. Could you image 1,700 police officers in Chicago being arrested? Okay, maybe not the best example given Chicago’s reputation. How about 1,700 officers in Rhode Island. You get my point.

    • In 2013 Puerto Rico places 33rd in an international corruption index. A score of 33 worldwide signifies a country that is very corrupt.

    • In 2016 Transparency International ranked Puerto Rico as “very corrupt”.

    • FBI arrests nine other Puerto Rican businessmen and officials in December 2015 as part of an ongoing FBI corruption investigation into Padilla’s government. At the time of their arrests, FBI special agent for San Juan, Carlos Cases, issued a scathing indictment of Puerto Rico’s government and the role corruption played in driving it to the brink of default, stating, “Unfortunately, this is one more case of graft, greed, and corruption that over the last 20 years have contributed to the government of Puerto Rico’s fragile economic condition and [placed it] on the brink of bankruptcy… Let there be no doubt this is only the beginning and the investigation will continue.”

    I could go on for 30 pages. This information was widely available and reported in all the major papers.
    Many of the individuals assigned to Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Board, the organization charged with implementing the PROMESA legislation contributed much to Puerto Rico’s financial collapse. It should come as no surprise than that the Fiscal Board is now violating the PROMESA legislation to protect Puerto Rico’s legacy of corruption and theft. Many on the Fiscal Board are having a good belly laugh at how stupid our congressmen are.

    Puerto Rico is an organized criminal enterprise, much like the modern-day mafia. Our congressmen knew that but still rushed to their rescue on the back of American tax payers. Now our Congressmen are busy throwing hundreds of millions in aid at Puerto Rico, money that will never be accounted for or find its way to the Puerto Rico people.

    Richard Lawless is a former senior banker who has specialized in evaluating and granting debt for over 25 years. He has a Master’s Degree in Finance from the University of San Diego and Bachelor’s Degree from Pepperdine University. He sits on several Corporate Boards and actively writes for several finance publications.

    Puerto Rico Bond Fraud that set a new standard for Congressional Corruption?
    60 Sec Commercial Summarizing some of the crimes

    Press Conference recapping testimony to the SEC/FBI and
    Congressional Oversight Committee – It is mind bending

  2. Commingling all of the debt, despite some being revenue, some being GO, and some being pension, is a completely idiotic way to determine what amount is owed to bondholders. Totally against anything in the bankruptcy code. This article also ignores any potential measures to increase revenues, collections, or to eliminate the massive amount of government waste in PR.

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