EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly, published on January 30, includes crude oil production estimates for Oklahoma based on EIA monthly survey data. The new estimates are roughly 100,000 barrels per day more than those generated by the previous EIA methodology, which was informed by state-reported data.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-914
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The recently expanded EIA-914 survey collects oil production data from the largest oil producers in 15 states (including Oklahoma), the federal Gulf of Mexico, and the remaining states as a group. Estimates based on the expanded EIA-914 survey, which had previously been implemented for other states, replaces an earlier methodology that relied on data collected by states. In states with predictable lag times and revision patterns, estimates based on the 914 data and the earlier methodology were quite similar. For these states, EIA shifted to the directly sampled 914 data earlier in 2015.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-914, and data from the Oklahoma Tax Commission and Corporation Commission, as compiled by DrillingInfo
For Oklahoma, the significant discrepancy between production estimates using earlier methodologies and those based on the new 914 survey, which directly samples about 75% of the state’s crude oil production volumes, led EIA to undertake an in-depth evaluation. EIA conferred with a number of large operators with significant production growth to confirm their reported production for 2014 and 2015. After review of these data and discussions with other operators, purchasers, Oklahoma state officials, and commercial data vendors, EIA determined that its expanded EIA-914 survey provided a better estimate of monthly Oklahoma production than the prior approach.
EIA’s estimates of Oklahoma’s oil production have been revised beginning with January 2015 and affect regional and national total production series. More information about EIA’s methodology is discussed in a presentation given by EIA staff to state officials and industry representatives in Oklahoma at the end of January 2016. Additional domestic oil production data are available in EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly and Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production reports.
Principal contributors: Jason Worrall, Emily Geary, Neal Davis