Investors don’t think there is better than a one out of three chance the Fed raises rates before the June FOMC meeting according to the Fed Funds futures implied probability. As recently as the end of last year, the implied probability of another 25 bps increase during the March FOMC meeting was as high as 52%. It has now fallen to about 33%. Similarly, the implied probability of a 25 bps hike during the April FOMC meeting has fallen from 51% at the end of the year to about 35% as of today. Investors also believe there is slightly less than 50% chance that next Fed rate hike will occur during the June FOMC meeting as the implied probability as fallen slightly to 42%.
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