Leon Cooperman is the fourth speaker at the Ira Sohn Conference today. If recent history to is any indicator, the founder of Omega Advisors will likely be talking broad based ideas and not any specific equities. As ValueWalk first reported, in Leon Cooperman’s 40 page Q1 letter to investors, the hedge fund manager mostly discussed broad equity valuations and only mentioned one specific company – a new stake in Dow Chemical.
Cooperman is bullish on the US economy and equities and stated:
The reason for our focus on the in-place economic expansion should be obvious. Beyond the relationship of the business cycle and the S&P 500 (Table 8), sustained and long-lasting economic growth can underpin sustained and long-lasting growth in corporate revenue, earnings, dividends, share buybacks, and M&A activity. Our expectation of sustained and long-lasting nominal GDP growth of between 4% and 5% should bring an extended period of S&P 500 revenue growth of at least 4% to 5% (Figure 20). In turn, we believe this revenue growth should generate organic earnings growth in line with S&P 500 revenue growth as, for reasons discussed later, we think the aggregate corporate profit margin should be roughly stable/slightly lower over the coming several years. We expect share buyback activity can lift earnings growth by
about 2%; as such, we anticipate S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 5% to 7% per year for quite some time. This expectation of an extended period of earnings growth should bring with it near double-digit dividend growth, persistent/sizeable share buyback activity, and strong M&A activity.
The relationship between the business cycle and earnings/dividends/buyback activity/M&A activity is illustrated in Figure 21; the benefit of a long-lasting economic expansion to these items is clear. With respect to M&A activity specifically, beyond the benefit to this activity from a long-lasting economic expansion, M&A should also benefit from currently low interest rates, large corporate cash positions, constrained top-line growth in the corporate sector, and a very large spread between return on equity and the cost of debt.
Leon Cooperman at Sohn Conference 2015
Leon Cooperman is basically discussing the same theme he talked about in his Q1 letter. Leon Cooperman – says that stocks are going higher in 2015 – 7-9% return for year, while he has a negative view of bonds.
No new surprises here – Leon Cooperman is bullish on Actavis, AerCap, Citi, Google, Priceline.
Leon Cooperman calls (Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royal) a “cigar butt” stock on his “best ideas” list
Our view has been pretty concensus, total return 7-9 % we like the multiple here with a negative bent to high yield.
35% stocks in the sp 500 out yield bonds , we came in positive on Europe and japan still think it is an attractive place to invest. Accommodative fed. Not cheap but okay cheap compared to debt 4 underpinnings of a bear market
1 stock market sees recession
significant geopolitical unrest?
There is no immaculate conception for a bear market. Economic data doesn’t say an oncoming recession. 7-9 month lag behind economic indicators and the market. We don’t see one on the horizon. We do see some consternation though. Since 1953 the stock market rose after the first rate rise. Early sell off should be bought. If rates don’t rise is more concerning sign of extra economic stress. Stocks are slightly expensive but they are cheap compared to fixed income we think there is a bubble in fixed income.
We should all keep in mind growth . we are going to look for a return of about 6-8% going forward. We have 5-6 stocks that you can dig through. Wont say go short fixed income shorten your durations. Bonds are dangerous place to be. TNX should be back to 4-5% shuld see 4% in 2 years
Buying a 20 year bond for a 20BPS return doesn’t make sense to me.
Stock market is like a supermarket. Spx average about 5% a year in growth.
ACT, AER, C DOW GM GOOGL PCLN
We like citi’s turnaround
DOW GM GOOGL PCLN if you are contrary to the market
GULF coast gas royalty trust