Groupon Inc (GRPN) Weak Guidance, Mobile Performance Impressive


Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) has posted below-expected results for the third quarter with revenue coming in at $595 million compared to the consensus estimate of $615 million. CSOI was recorded at $39 million, below the Street estimate of $41 million, due to seasonal headwinds and under-performance of the email marketing channel, says a report by UBS analysts Eric J. Sheridan, Vishal J. Patel and Timothy E. Chiodo.Groupon Inc (GRPN) Weak Guidance, Mobile Performance Impressive

Mobile performance impressive

Analysts noted that the company performed better in EMEA and ROW, and billing trajectory increased reflecting early signs of an international turnaround. Global spending per customer was stable year on year and units surged 9% year on year. North America posted the strongest spending per customer growth of 19% year on year.

Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) reflected impressive progress in its mobile-first commerce platform. Analysts noted some upsides, such as the fact that about 40% of its global transactions were done through mobile devices in September 2013. Around 60 million downloads were run through Groupon’s mobile app, and mobile transactions in North America accounted for over 50% of all transactions this quarter.

Groupon guidance and estimates

Company guided a low fourth quarter revenue in the range of $690-$740 million compared to the consensus estimate of $725 million. Groupon also provided a lower financial year GAAP Op Inc guidance of $72-92 million mostly due to headwinds from e-mail and the shift to a pull model.

For 2014, the report notes that Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) will keep progressing and will transform which will add value to its business in the long term. For the fourth quarter, there are some downside risks according to the analysts due to transformation. The mobile platform will prove beneficial for the company in the long run, and will contribute to better and more stable revenue along with higher margins for Groupon, believe analysts.

For the last quarter of fiscal 2013, analysts expect Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) to post revenues of $697 million, which is towards the lower end of management’s guidance. Also, the company is expected to be impacted by slower than anticipated revenue growth in EMEA. These factors will be compensated for by potentially better results from the ROW owing to increasing investment in Asia and Latin America.

UBS analysts have a Neutral rating on Groupon with a price target of $11.

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About the Author

Aman Jain
Aman is MBA (Finance) with an experience on both Marketing and Finance side. He has worked as a Risk Analyst for AIR Worldwide, and is currently leading VeRa FinServ, a Financial Research firm. Favorite pastimes include watching science fiction movies, reviewing tech gadgets, playing PC games and cricket. - Email him at [email protected]

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