Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) Q4 Earnings Preview

Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) Q4 Earnings Preview
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Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:MSI) will come up with its fourth quarter earnings report shortly. A report from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) raises its base case $55 from $50, saying “NT risk/reward on MSI is getting less attractive given the recent run in stock and as we get closer to the likely top-line deceleration, we expect occurs post the Jan 1, 2013 narrow banding deadline plus continued headwinds in enterprise.” The report believes the near-term risk/reward on Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:MSI) is slightly unattractive given the recent run-up in the share price.

Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) Q4 Earnings Preview

On Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:MSI), LMR business model, report is highly optimistic, terming it a sustainable model for a long time (i.e., 10+ years).  Also, the double-digit growth of 2012 was a temporary deviation due to January 1st narrow-banding deadline that likely brought forward system upgrades into 2012 from future years. Basing on such factors, report believes “comps begin to get increasingly challenging in 2013 while the pipeline for new Gov’t LMR projects may be dryer for MSI than in normal years.”

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Emerging as a strong competitor for Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:MSI), Honeywell announced a proposed acquisition of Intermec for $600 million. The report believes the acquisition opens up new opportunities for Honeywell in RFID, voice solutions (from Intermec’s Vocollect acquisition), and bar-code and receipt printing. Despite opportunities, there is a significant overlap in Honeywell’s existing core mobile computing and automatic data capture businesses with Intermec’s.  This will help MSI “in the near-term, from the confusion of the merger as buyers who have traditionally sourced their products from Honeywell and Intermec may want to diversify their supplier base”, says report.

FirstNet LTE deployments are believed to start by 2015.  Traditional telecom vendors and carriers are expected to a major role in building the FirstNet Nationwide Network, with MSI addressing the device side rather than the infrastructure side of the opportunity, “implying MSI’s piece comes more once the network is up and running.”

The MS report expect the fourth quarter revenues of $2.45 billion, up 6.4 percent yearly, which is in line with the guidance of up 6 percent to 7 percent.  A survey by MS, of 30 Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:MSI) enterprise resellers, revealed that enterprise trends remain weak with more re-sellers reporting missing than beating their fourth quarter plans.  ScanSource too estimate preliminary fourth quarter sales $10 million below guidance.

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