Facebook Inc (FB) Outlook Boosted By FBX & Improved US Desktop Usage


A research report from Oppenheimer raised its estimates on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), owing to improved U.S. Desktop usage and the impact of the Facebook Exchange (FBX). As a result, the report believes that cannibalization from mobile usage may have slowed. Desktop inventory should flow through FBX, with pricing 2X Marketplace, based on this, for 2013 and 2014,  it expects Desktop revenue to grow by 3 percent and 27 percent year over year, against -30 percent and 4 percent previously.

Facebook Inc (FB) Outlook Boosted By FBX & Improved US Desktop Usage

Recent data from COMSCORE, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) shows an inflection in U.S. desktop usage. Such inflections implies “mobile cannibalization may have slowed. U.S. December desktop minutes decreased 20% y/y, an acceleration from -25% y/y in November and -26% y/y in October,” says the report.

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Recent Facebook Usage Trends

Some of the investors were concerned that younger people are abandoning the desktop version of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) at a faster rate, but the COMSCORE, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) data show otherwise, suggesting a rebound is happening among 12-17 year olds. And for users around 18-44 year, who spend less time on mobile devices, the data suggests a consistent upward usage trends.

FB minutes per usage by age fo US desktop

For FBX, the company’s real-time bidding exchange, the fourth quarter of 2012 will mark a first meaningful contribution as such “retargeting” ads commanded a higher Cost Per Thousand (CPM).  FBX, which is only available on desktop, allows advertisers to target consumers based on their viewing history. The report predicts FBX will reach 25 percent of U.S. desktop ads at 2x CPMs by the 2013. Such numbers are based on the specific mix and pricing assumptions for Marketplace, FBX and Sponsored Stories/Newsfeed ads. For 2013, Market place ads are expected to represent 66 percent of U.S. desktop inventory, FBX at 18 percent and Sponsored Stories/Newsfeed at 17 percent. For 2018, FBX ads are expected to represent 75 percent of U.S. Desktop inventory and Sponsored Stories/Newsfeed ads will represent 25 percent of U.S. Desktop inventory.

Based on the current revenue, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) is expected to generate revenue/hour of $0.40 in 2018, compared to $0.45 and $0.78 for Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) and AOL, Inc. (NYSE:AOL), respectively.  For international revenue, the report expects, Facebook can generate revenue per hour of $0.10 in 2018, compared to the $0.15 that Yahoo currently generates.

US revenue per hour

With such optimistic numbers, the report increases its fourth quarter and 2013 estimates by 4 percent and 18 percent, now 7 percent and 14 percent above the Street, respectively.

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