About the author

David Merkel

David J. Merkel, CFA, FSA — 2010-present, I am working on setting up my own equity asset management shop, tentatively called Aleph Investments. It is possible that I might do a joint venture with someone else if we can do more together than separately. From 2008-2010, I was the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities. I did a many things for Finacorp, mainly research and analysis on a wide variety of fixed income and equity securities, and trading strategies. Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm. From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the investment website RealMoney.com. Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and I wrote for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better. I no longer contribute to RealMoney; I scaled it back because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution. After three-plus year of operation, I believe I have achieved that. Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life. My background as a life actuary has given me a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that I will deal with in this blog. I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University. In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth.

  • yeahhahahahahahah

    Not just about the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 many developing countries had birth rates at about 6 children per woman which most have declined to about 4 or 3 and in Mexico 2 per woman and still declining which will cause a shift in the age of population means even then there will still be a decline if birth rates continue at current levels

  • Sujay Rao Mandavilli

    Good article! India is a bit more complicated with wide variations across regions. The tfr for India as a whole is 2.5 while in many regions it is below replacement. the world’s tfr will effectively be at replacement by 2030. After that most countries will be classified into replacement, low fertility-below 2.1, very low fertility-much below 2.1. A detailed analysis will also perhaps be done of movements of a countries tfr after it has fallen below 2.1 eg static, rebounding. These factors will perhaps shape future trends

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