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The U.S. Employment Situation – July 2013 [ANALYSIS]

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its employment situation release this morning that +162k jobs were added in July. This is worse than what economists expected for the month and down from June’s revised reading of +188k jobs.

The majority of new jobs this month came in the retail trade and professional services sectors.

  • Mining and Logging: +4k payrolls compared to 3k last month.
  • Construction: -6k payrolls compared to 8k last month.
  • Manufacturing: 6k payrolls compared to -3k last month.
  • Wholesale Trade: +13.7k payrolls compared to +7.0k last month.
  • Retail Trade: +46.8k payrolls compared to +39.7k last month.
  • Transportation: +4.6k payrolls compared to 0.7k last month.
  • Information Services: +9k payrolls compared to -4k last month.
  • Financial Activities: +15k payrolls compared to +13k last month.
  • Professional Services: +36k payrolls compared to +61 last month.
  • Education: +13k payrolls compared to +16k last month.
  • Leisure and Hospitality: +23k payrolls compared to +57k last month.
  • Other Services: -2k payrolls compared to -3k last month.
  • Government: +1k payrolls compared to -8k last month.

Here’s the cumulative changes in payrolls by industry since July 2007.

The U.S. Employment Situation – July 2013 [ANALYSIS]

The unemployment rate (U-3) decreased in July to 7.4% from 7.6% in June while the broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 14.0% from 14.3.

The labor force participation rate decreased to 63.4% from 63.5% in June.

The employment-population ratio was unchanged from last month at 58.7%.

I will note again as I do every month that the current labor force participation rate is very near the lowest it has been since April of 1983.

The labor force participation rate among all men decreased in July to 69.9% from 70.0% in June. The labor force participation rate among all women was unchanged at 57.4%.

Among production and non-supervisory employees, average weekly hours worked decreased from last month and were 33.6. Average hourly earnings were unchanged at $20.14, making average weekly earnings of $676.70 from $678.72 last month. This is a fairly significant monthly decline in earnings.

The U.S. Employment Situation – July 2013 [ANALYSIS]

The average duration of unemployment increased in July to 36.6 weeks compared to 35.6 weeks in June. This is perhaps the most negative piece of data from the entire report, as we continue to see that those who have been out of work the longest are still having trouble regaining employment.

I always include a longer time frame on this chart though to provide some context of just how bad this recession has been for the long-term unemployed. This is still the leading employment indicator that shows how “this time is different.”


Percent of unemployed by duration:

  • Less than 5 weeks: 22.4% compared to 22.9% last month.
  • 5 to 14 weeks: 25.0% compared to 24.3% last month.
  • 15 to 26 weeks: 15.6% compared to 16.1% last month.
  • 27 weeks and over: 37.0% compared to 36.7% last month.

Employment improved for most age groups this month, with the exception of 16 and 17 year olds who saw unemployment jump. The unemployment rate of age groups:

  • 16 to 17: 29.1% compared to 26.5% last month.
  • 18 to 19: 19.9% compared to 22.6% last month.
  • 20 to 24: 12.6% compared to 13.5% last month.
  • 25 to 34: 7.5% compared to 7.6% last month.
  • 35 to 44: 6.0% compared to 5.9% last month.
  • 45 to 54: 5.7% compared to 5.7% last month.
  • 55+: 5.0% compared to 5.3% last month.

The unemployment rate for men decreased to 7.7% from 7.8% in June. The unemployment rate for women decreased to 7.0% from 7.3% last month.

The unemployment rate among all veterans in July was 6.4% from June’s 6.3%.

The unemployment rate among male veterans increased to 6.4% from 6.1% last month. The wildly volatile female veteran unemployment rate was 6.6%, down from the 7.6% it was last month.

Of the 4 racial groups tracked by the BLS, only Blacks experienced an improving unemployment rate this month.:

  • White: 6.6% compared to 6.6% last month.
  • Black: 12.6% compared to 13.7% last month.
  • Asian: 5.7% compared to 5.0% last month.
  • Hispanic: 9.4% compared to 9.1% last month.

Unemployment rates by education level:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 11.0% compared to 10.7% last month.
  • High school graduates: 7.6% from 7.6% last month.
  • Some college or Associate degree: 6.0% from 6.4% last month.
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 3.8% from 3.9% last month.

The structural weaknesses developing in several industries along with the incredibly high average duration of unemployment have contributed to a slow, slow recovery.

Full table of employment changes in July:

H/T webcache.googleusercontent.com

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