Twitter Inc (TWTR) Earnings Preview: User Growth In Focus

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Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) is scheduled to release its next earnings report on or around Oct. 29. Bernstein analysts have a Market Perform rating on the micro-blogging company, but they’re quite a bit ahead of consensus estimates for revenue. Their profit estimate is a little bit behind consensus, however.

User growth still a key metric for Twitter

In a report dated Oct. 8, 2014, analyst Carlos Kirjner said investors will once again be focused on Twitter’s user growth. He noted that the company hasn’t yet delivered any “material, sustained reacceleration” in user growth.

He also said that user growth is important because monetization and margins could “fluctuate significantly” over the next few quarters. The analyst expects Twitter’s monetization and average revenue per user to change in the near term thanks to the company’s new advertising products and advertisers learning how to use those products.

For the September quarter, he’s projecting 284 million users, with 62 million of them being domestic. That wouldn’t be much of a change in the growth trajectory.

What to expect in Twitter’s earnings report

Kirjner estimates that Twitter will post $378 million in revenue, compared to the consensus estimate of $350 million. He’s looking for adjusted EBITDA of $51 million, compared to the consensus estimate of $53 million. The analyst notes that the consensus estimate is probably based on a broad range of numbers because of widely varying views on Twitter.

The analyst is looking for $215 million in domestic ad revenue and average revenue per user of $2.47. In international revenues, he expects $130 million and average revenue per user of 59 cents.

What should interest Twitter investors

In addition to the usual numbers and metrics, Kirjner thinks investors should take note of Twitter’s continuing efforts to change the experiences of users. The micro-blogging company has particularly been focusing on new users and how their experience affects its user growth trajectory.

He also wants to hear more about Twitter’s new advertising products and how they have impacted its results so far. Specifically, he’s interested in app install ads, which he thinks could significantly boost the company’s near term monetization.

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