Trident Fund LP December 2020 Commentary

Trident Fund LP December 2020 Commentary

Trident Fund LP commentary for the month ended December 2020.

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Trident Fund LP December 2020 Performance

The Trident Fund LP returned +1.6 percent in December, and the fund is +15.0  percent net for 2020.

This Hedge Fund Was Up More Than 100 Percent For 2020

InvestingADW Capital had an incredible 2020 with a 119.2% net return for the full year. At a time when most other funds have struggled with relatively low returns, ADW posted double-digit returns in several months of 2020. In December, the fund returned 19.91%, while in November, it posted a return of 39.63%. For the fourth Read More


In December, the Global Central Bank accommodation fueled record-setting prices in stocks, commodities, and metals that led Trident to a strong finish to 2020. The Risk Regime Model and the Engle model contributed equally to the month's returns, while the Vega model did not trade.

In the fourth quarter and December, market performance mirrored what happened for the second half of the year when strong stock and commodities markets and a weak dollar combined for consistent and balanced portfolio returns. The biggest drag on portfolio performance came from European fixed income, which was in stark contrast to 2019 when the bulk of the Trident returns came from European fixed income.

Returns Across All Models

In 2020 all three of Trident's models traded, and all three made money. In the strong bull stock market of 2019, the Vega model did not trade. In 2019, seventy-five percent of the returns came from the Risk Regime model, as it correctly took "risk-on" positions in equities and fixed income. In 2020, returns across models were more balanced. The Risk Regime Model earned about forty percent of the returns, while the Engle model contributed half, and the Vega model contributed about a tenth of the return.


2019 and 2020 were dramatically different years, "Euphoria" and "Distress," both years the Trident Systematic Global Macro strategy hit its longer-term target return of +15% net, volatility target of 13%, and no correlation to the S&P 500, MSCI, Barclay Aggregate Bond Index, and Commodities. The strategy has outperformed its benchmark by over one thousand basis points per year and remains in the top decile of the universe and against the major competitors.

Towards the end of 2019, we predicted the S&P 500 would have a strong run to thirty-eight hundred "Unsinkable Stock Market." Looking ahead to 2021, Trident models predict a strong market for commodities, a flat market for equities, a weak market for the dollar, and the first sustained increase in global bond yields since 2015.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at) - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver

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