Every year during the Super Bowl, S&P Global Market Intelligence uses the S&P Capital IQ database to for a light-hearted look at Super Bowl history, winners and losers and stock market returns.
At this year's Sohn Investment Conference, Dan Sundheim, the founder and CIO of D1 Capital Partners, spoke with John Collison, the co-founder of Stripe. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more D1 manages $20 billion. Of this, $10 billion is invested in fast-growing private businesses such as Stripe. Stripe is currently valued at around Read More
Notes About The Game:
- RETURNING CHAMPS ARE A WIN FOR S&P 500: Both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are past winners of the Super Bowl. When a former champion returns and wins the Super Bowl, the average stock market return is 13.8%.
- LET’S GO OFFENSE: Over the past 54 years the median combined final score of each game has been 46 points. When the teams in the Super Bowl combine to score at least 46 points, the stock market returns 15.9% on average (based on 29 years). If the final combined score is under 46, the average market return is just 7.3%.
- WHEN IN ROME: Roman numerals began to be used with Super Bowl V held in 1971. When the game is designated with odd number the average market return in the subsequent years is 15.7% versus only 8.1% for games designated with an even number.
- NO PLACE LIKE HOME: When the home team wins the average market return in the subsequent years is 16.4% versus only 8.9% when the road team wins. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have the home team designation and true home field advantage in this year’s game.
- SUNSHINE STATE: Orange juice is not the only great thing to come out of Florida as it ranks 3rd out of 10 states where a Super Bowl has been played with an average annual stock market gain of 15.3% following the 15 games played in the state of Florida.
- FRESH AIR – This year’s game will be played outdoors at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. 35 Super Bowl games have been played at an open air stadium or with the retractable roof open and the average S&P 500 return for those years is 14.5% versus an average market return of 7.3% after games played under a dome or with the retractable roof closed.
- SOUTHERN EXPOSURE – 7 of the top 10 all-time highest annual returns occurred after games played in the southeast including the top 3 returns (37.6% in 1995, 37.1% in 1975, 33.4% in 1997).
- HEAD EAST: When games are played east of the Mississippi River the average market return in the subsequent years is 13.8% versus 9.0% when games played west of the Mississippi River.
- WHAT ARE THE ODDS: When the favored team wins the market responses with an average return of 13.7% versus 8.8% when the underdog pulls off the upset. No matter who wins the market approves when the game goes “over” as the market responds with an average return of 15.9%
Notes About Each League:
National Football Conference (NFC) versus American Football Conference (AFC)
- The market performs better on average after an NFC win returning on average 13.8% versus 10.1% after an AFC win.
- In this year’s game the NFC is considered the home team and when the home team wins the average market return in the subsequent years is 16.4% versus 8.9% after a road team win.
- Both the best annual return (37.6% in 1995) and the worst return (-37.0 in 2008) occurred after an NFC victory.
- 4 of the top 5 highest scoring Super Bowls were won by the NFC while 8 of the top 10 lowest scoring games were won by the AFC
- While the AFC enjoys a better record during games played outdoors (20-15) the market prefers wins by the NFC as the market averages a 21.3% return after those NFC victories in games played outdoors.
Note About Each Team:
The Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) are 2-1 in their three previous Super Bowls appearances.
- Win or lose the markets respond positively when the Chief’s are in the big game returning 23.9% after their lost in the very first Super Bowl back in 1967 and gained an average of 11.1% after their wins in Super Bowls IV and LIV.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) is 1-0 in the big game winning Super Bowl XXXVII
- The stock market responded well when the Buccaneers made it to the Super Bowl with a gain of 28.7% following their victory in Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003.