The latest from Kyle Bass:
At the end of October, the value investor Mohnish Pabrai gave a presentation and took part in a Q&A session at Boston College and Harvard Business School on the Uber Cannibal Investor Framework, which he has developed over the past decade. Uber Cannibals are the businesses “eating themselves by buying back their stock,” the value Read More
For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.
On the IMF and its role as global savior
He discusses in some detail Keynes and the IMF formation and the new world order he foresees as our era of the largest peacetime accumulation of global debt has no precedent (as it has historically ended in conflict or been created by conflict).
And how this debt saturation will inebitably play out:
Fundamentally, its about the social fabric of the world…what does this all mean? It means war.
And summarizing for every long-only talking head pitch-man:
This is not a cyclical rebound from a crisis we had two years and you should NOT be buying stocks because a P/E ratio is low relative to historical S&P behavior because the E is wrong. We are going to see declines and people don’t know how to position themselves for declines. We are at peak earnings now! Earnings only look good because if you take all the bad assets and put them on the public balance sheet.
We need to delever globally. We haven’t delevered. Just now we are seeing marginal delevering in Europe and all hell is breaking loose. An summing up:
Consensus is US low/slow GDP growth – no recession, US better than Europe, Europe mild recession, muddle through, go all in to Emerging markets as that’s where the convexity is.
The consensus is never going to be right.
I don’t get paid to be an optimist or a pessimist. I get paid to be a realist and the realist negative currently.
Don’t believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.
Full interview here ((no embed code (yet))
Link to full interview here-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw
H/T to Zero Hedge